Weekly Korea’s Economy Digest (January 17 - 23, 2010)

Economy News Monday January 24, 2011 15:57 —Export Department

1. Subject: Trade surplus soars to record in 2010

Date: January 17, 2011

Source: Yonhap News

Korea’s trade surplus reached a record high last year, aided by robust exports of semiconductors, ships and other key products, the customs office said yesterday.

The country’s trade surplus reached a revised $41.2 billion in 2010, down from an earlier estimate of $41.7 billion, according to the Korea Customs Service.

But the 2010 reading still marked the largest trade surplus, exceeding the previous record high of $41 billion seen in 2009.

Korea’s exports advanced 28.3 percent on-year to a record $466.4 billion last year while imports jumped 31.6 percent to $425.2 billion.

The country’s record trade surplus was driven by brisk exports of semiconductors worth $51.5 billion and exports of ships worth $47.1 billion.

“Robust exports helped Korea become the world’s seventh-largest exporter last year from the ninth-biggest trading nation in 2009,” said the KCS. China was Korea’s biggest trading partner as 25.1 percent of the total Korean exports flew into the world’s fastest-growing economy, followed by the United States with 10.7 percent and Japan with 6 percent.

Korea recovered at a faster-than-expected pace from the brunt of the global financial turmoil, pulling off a 6.1 percent expansion in 2010 on strong exports and improving domestic demand.

2. Subject: Consumers go nuts for Lunar New Year gifts

Date: January 17, 2011

Source: Hankyung Economy

Han Myung-joo, a 52-year-old housewife living in Yangcheon District, western Seoul, was engaged in her yearly ritual of shopping for Lunar New Year gift sets on Jan. 14. But Han’s traditional routine was different in two ways this year: she preordered her gifts online and opted to send gulbi - dried yellow corvina - instead of fruit boxes.

“I’ve tasted the fruit on the market this year, and they aren’t sweet at all,” said Han. “I thought it was a better choice to spend a little more and send gulbi [to my husband’s business contacts] instead.”

Premium Korean-beef gift set sold at Lotte Department Store

As Lunar New Year approaches, beef and fish are proving to be this year’s hottest gift items. Large retailers are reporting substantial increases in gift-set sales thanks to an explosive increase in the popularity of seafood and undiminished demand for beef.

Sales of Lunar New Year gift sets at Lotte Department Store outlets have increased by 42 percent on-year between Dec. 28 and Jan. 12, according to the retail giant. Among perennial favorites - such as beef, fruit and health foods - seafood gift sets, like boxes of dried corvina or hairtail, have seen the greatest increase in demand.

Shinsegae Department Store reported a whopping 279 percent on-year rise in revenue from fish gift sets, while Lotte and Hyundai Department Stores reported 169 percent and 103 percent increases, respectively. “Since [gift set] preorders began on Dec. 28, we’ve received roughly three times the orders for hairtail or dried corvina sets compared to previous years,” said a seafood procurer at a major department store.

Analysts say the relatively weak demand for fruit has boosted the demand for fish.

Although fruit gift sets have seen their fair share of revenue this Lunar New Year season, industry insiders explain that both the supply and the flavor of traditional staples such as apples and pears have suffered because of off-kilter weather patterns that began early last year.

In fact, retailers such as Lotte Mart have begun offering gift sets of alternative fruits such as strawberries and Hallabong, a citrus fruit brand from Jeju Island. Meanwhile, the popularity of beef remains high as foot-and-mouth disease threatens to undercut adequate domestic beef supply.

Hyundai Department Store reported a 36 percent on-year increase in revenue from domestic-beef gift sets from Dec. 28 to Jan. 12.

In particular, high-end domestic beef products that cost between 260,000 won and 320,000 won ($233 and 287) have been selling at twice the rate of regular beef sets.

“Gift-set sales have been off to a good start with the increase of large-scale purchases by corporate customers,” said a Lotte Department Store official. “We are marketing popular gift-set categories, such as domestic beef, corvina and fruit, to continue this streak of revenue increases as preorders end and sales begin [this week].”

3. Subject: Korea’s 10 major trends in 2011

Date: January 17, 2011

Source: SERI (Samsung Economic Research Institute)

This year will be defined by tension and attempts to close gaps in prosperity. Friction at home and abroad stemming from fair economic disparities will arise and military tension will persist.

On the bright side, regulations will be adopted to improve the soundness and stability of the financial system.

Topping the list of the biggest trends for this year is security on the peninsula. We expect olive branches and saber-rattling.

Even if dialogue restarts through an inter-Korean summit or the six-party talks, there won't be a breakthrough on nuclear disarmament of the North. There is the possibility that the North could again attempt to get attention through provocations. Secondly, a global network knitting together Korea's free trade agreements is moving apace.

The Korea-EU FTA goes into effect in July, and the FTA with the U.S. appears poised for ratification soon.

If these two FTAs go into effect, Korea would have preferential access to 60 percent of the world's economy.

The next trend we expect to observe is slowing growth momentum in Korea. Exports and facilities investment, which spearheaded the fast economic recovery last year, will decelerate due to a strong won and slow global economy.

This won't necessarily mean that the Korean economy will fall into a prolonged period of low growth.

The base effect resulting from last year's high economic growth will temper first-half figures. Fourthly, the risk of household loan adjustment will rise.

Korean households have been piling on debt. Since variable rate loans account for a high percentage of total household loans, they will be vulnerable to interest rate increases by the Bank of Korea, which has shifted into inflation-fighting mode.

Next up, we will see further appreciation of the won, which will push down the annual average won-dollar exchange rate to the 1,000 won-level for the first time since 2007. The won's value is expected to appreciate against the yen as well.

Benefits from the won's low value will deteriorate. The sixth trend is the implementation of new financial regulations.

A macro-prudential stability levy on the balance of banks' foreign liabilities, the so-called bank levy, and part of Basel III (widening the range of risky assets and tightening regulations on financial institutions' trading activities) will be implemented this year.

The new regulations will weaken the intermediary function of financial institutions but help stabilize the financial system.

Seventh, the expansion of the broadcasting industry and media content will attract attention. At the end of 2010, the Korea Communications Commission issued five cable TV licenses for general programming and all-news operations.

This will reshuffle the media market structure. As for media content, competition will intensify and program providers will pursue many alliances and mergers.

The eighth trend is changes in the biopharmaceutical industry. From this year, biosimilars will be available in Korea. For Korea's bio and pharmaceutical industry, biosimilars can fuel growth because the development period is short and they are easy to market abroad.

Combined with Korea's innovative process capability, Korea's biosimilars can become very competitive in the global market.

The ninth-biggest trend is mounting popularity of smart devices and social networking services.

The number of Korea's smartphone subscribers is expected to double this year from the current 15 million.

Three domestic mobile telecommunication operators are planning to expand their Wi-Fi and WiBro networks while introducing 4G LTE this year.

We will also see the emergence of issues involving social conflicts and creating a fairer society.

Thanks to plural labor unions at workplaces scheduled in July and the popularity of social networking services, social conflicts will become multi-layered.

Ahead of the 2012 general and presidential elections, major issues for this year will be policies friendly to the ordinary working classes and creating a fair society.

4. Subject: S. Korea, India to hold talks on trade, economic cooperation

Date: January 18, 2011

Source: Yonhap News

South Korea will dispatch a large business delegation to India this week for talks and a business fair in a bid to help expand trade and economic cooperation between the countries, organizers said Monday.

The Korea-India business forum will be held in New Delhi from Tuesday to Thursday, involving some 50 South Korean officials, including the country's Trade Minister Kim Jong-hoon, and representatives from major companies, such as Samsung and Hyundai Motor Co. according to the Federation of Korean Industries (FKI), the largest business lobby in South Korea.

The FKI said the forum was part of its efforts "to open up a new era of US$1 trillion in trade" as South Korea seeks to become the world's ninth nation this year to reach that amount in trade.

During their trip to India, South Korean officials will also hold talks with their Indian counterparts on a free trade agreement, known as the comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA), between the countries that was implemented at the beginning of last year.

"Trade between Korea and India increased 44.5 percent in 11 months since the CEPA was enacted last year, but there are still many issues that need to be addressed, such as the confusion arising from the various legal and tax systems of India's different states," the FKI said.

In the first 11 months of 2010, South Korean exports to India jumped 45 percent to $10.4 billion with the inflow of Indian products to the country also rising 43 percent to $5.2 billion. Seoul and New Delhi are working to increase their bilateral trade to $30 billion within the next five years.

5. Subject: S. Korean currency rises 2.6 pct to dollar in 2010

Date: January 18, 2010

Source: JoongAng Daily

The South Korean currency gained 2.6 percent against the U.S. dollar last year amid robust exports and continued capital inflows, the central bank said Monday.

The won's gain was the smallest last year among major Asian currencies excluding the Hong Kong dollar, which lost 0.2 percent against the greenback, according to the Bank of Korea (BOK).

Hong Kong has pegged its currency to the greenback.

Among major Asian currencies, the Japanese currency had the sharpest gain per greenback by rising 13.4 percent, followed by the Malaysian ringgit's 11.8 percent gain and the Thai baht's 11.1 percent ascent.

"The relatively smaller gain in the Korean unit came as the local currency underwent sharp losses, hit by the eurozone debt crisis and heightened cross-border tensions," a BOK official said.

The Korean won was also one of the worst performers among 26 currencies by rising the least per dollar. Last year, the euro fell 6.6 percent and the pound lost 3.5 percent per the dollar.

The Korean won, which rose 8.2 percent per greenback in 2009, gained ground in 2010 as brisk exports and sustained foreign capital inflows, sparked by the Fed's loose monetary policy, prodded the dollar to flow into the country.

In the second quarter, the Korean unit fell 7.4 percent per dollar on concerns over the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and geopolitical risks stemming from the results of a probe into North Korea's deadly sinking of a South Korean warship.

Meanwhile, the daily foreign exchange trading transactions among banks averaged US$19.46 billion last year, up 6.3 percent from the previous year, the BOK said. In the fourth quarter, inter-bank daily foreign exchange trading averaged $19.28 billion won, up 5 percent from three months earlier.

The average daily volatility of the local currency reached 9.5 won last year, smaller than 14.6 won seen in 2009. The won's daily volatility came in at 9.7 won in the fourth quarter, hit by heightened geopolitical risks from North Korea's shelling of a front-line island.

The won's on-day fluctuation averaged 0.6 percent in 2010, giving it the highest volatility among major Asian currencies.

The Korean unit's volatility eased last year, compared with 0.71 percent in 2009 and 0.99 percent in 2008.

But it contrasted with the yen's on-day fluctuation of 0.48 percent and the Singapore dollar's 0.28 percent, the BOK said.

6. Subject: S. Korea’s IT & Auto Stocks to Benefit from Recovery in Advanced Economies

Date: January 21, 2010

Source: Yonhap News

South Korea’s IT and automobile stock prices are forecast to rise further even after Samsung Electronics’ stock price reached its peak of one million won ($892) per share.

Shinhan Investment Corp. said on Friday that Korea’s IT and auto stocks may be very appealing to foreign investors to buy as the advanced economy recovers.

Meanwhile, emerging economies are witnessing that foreign investment is on a decline due to concerns over austerity measures that may be in fear of increasing inflationary pressures and falls in valuation of their stocks.

On the other hand, economic recovery in advanced economies including the United States is forecast to take a stable position because of their low interest rates and quantitative easing measures.

“As emerging stock markets are becoming less appealing, foreign investors are turning their eyes to advanced markets.

Nonetheless, the Korean stock market is still faring well in comparison with other Asian emerging markets,” a researcher from Shinhan Investment Corp said.

Inflation pressures are not so high in Korea, and Korean stocks remain underpriced. “An optimistic outlook for the domestic stock market needs to be extended, and pay attention to the IT and auto industries that will be the biggest beneficiaries of recovery in advanced economies,” the researcher said.

7. Subject: S. Korean Businesses Consider Product Competitiveness Most Important in Chinese Market

Date: January 23, 2011

Source: Yonhap News

It is most crucial to South Korean businesses to enhance competitiveness of their products to succeed in entering the Chinese market, according to a survey.

Korea International Trade Association’s branch in China found in a survey on Sunday that 37.2% of the 212 Korean businesses operating in China said that product competitiveness is the most important factor needed for entry into the Chinese market.

Increasing product competitiveness was followed by selecting good partners (17.1%), securing a stable distribution network (12.4%), choosing appropriate business operation sites (12.4%) and tapping into outstanding local talents (10.2%).

As for best ways to expand market shares of Korean companies in the Chinese market, the respondents cited strengthening product competitiveness (29.6%), enhancing marketing activities in China (15.1%), securing stable distributing channels (13.4%) and developing products tailored to Chinese customers (12.4%).

The survey found that most of the Korean businesses operating in China right now have achieved success in their challenge to enter the foreign market even in the midst of cutthroat competition with Chinese local businesses. 55.7% of the respondents said their entry into the Chinese market was successful, while 33.5% said it was moderate and 10.8% said it was a failure.

In particular, those spent long periods of time running business in China had more positive responses to the question.

More than 70% of businesses that began operation in China more than 11 years ago said their business was successful.

The survey respondents forecast that the Chinese local market will grow by more than double the current figures in terms of sales, market shares and new opportunities, which is good news to Korean businesses.

Office of Commercial Affairs, Royal Thai Embassy in Korea

Source : http://www.depthai.go.th

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