Japan Economy Digest (July 5 - 11, 2011)

Economy News Wednesday July 13, 2011 09:08 —Export Department

Japan's Leading Business Lobby Urges Early Start Of EPA Talks With EU

BERLIN (Kyodo)--Japan's largest business lobby asked Germany on Tuesday for early start of negotiations aimed at concluding an economic partnership agreement between the European Union and its home country.

The delegation of the Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, led by its Chairman Hiromasa Yonekura made the call during a meeting with German economic minister Philipp Roesler, Keidanren officials said.

Japan and the European Union agreed to swiftly start preparatory talks for a future free trade accord during an annual summit in May. Yonekura was quoted as telling the German minister, "We hope Germany will exercise leadership in addressing consensus-building" on the issue.

Roesler responded cautiously by suggesting some industries in Germany are critical of concluding an EPA with Japan, the officials said. The remarks implied persistent resistance in auto and other sectors in Germany against eliminating tariffs.

Roesler then called on the Japanese government to send a clear message that it will abolish nontariff barriers as requested by Germany, according to the officials. Yonekura told Roesler that he will try to prod the Japanese government to promptly resolve the issue, the officials said.

Source:The Nikkei July 6,2011

Free Trade Deals Key For Japan's Post-Quake Recovery: White PaperTOKYO

(Kyodo)--Securing free trade agreements with other countries is important for Japan to recover from the aftermath of the March 11 disasters as well as to attract more foreign businesses, the industry ministry said in a white paper on trade released Friday.

"If various costs are reduced by free trade agreements...it would give a boost to (companies') production activities that have started to recover," the white paper said. It "might be desirable" that Japan join a regional free trade accord currently being negotiated among the United States and some other Asia-Pacific countries, the paper added.

Tokyo earlier planned to decide by June whether to join the negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but has put it off as it reviewed its policy priorities in the wake of the devastating March quake and tsunami.

The vague wording used in the paper indicated the sensitiveness of Japan pursuing the TPP. There has been strong opposition from the agricultural industry as it fears that farmers may be hit hard by a possible influx of cheap agricultural imports.

The business community, meanwhile, is supportive of the TPP as the agreement would likely help boost exports by Japan's auto and electrical machinery makers.

"It is a grim reality that not only Japan, but the world economy itself faces the risks of natural disasters...and companies and each economic entity have to shoulder these risks under a global-scale network and through cooperation with each other," the paper said.

Japan has not been able to start free trade negotiations with major trading partners such as the United States and the European Union, whereas South Korea has already signed an FTA with the United States. South Korea's FTA with the European Union, which took effect on July 1, has also fueled concerns in Japan that its businesses will fall behind their South Korean rivals in competitiveness.

An improvement in the business environment would also encourage foreign companies to set up regional controlling offices or research and development bases in Japan, the paper said, as it expressed concerns that the ongoing nuclear crisis and power supply shortage could undermine Japan's location value in the medium term.

Japan is facing fears of electricity shortages following the natural disasters, which set off a crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and heightened public concerns about the safety of nuclear power. The White Paper on International Economy and Trade was reported at Friday's Cabinet meeting by Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda.

Source:The Nikkei July 8,2011

Economy Watcher Sentiment Logs Fastest Recovery In June

TOKYO (Kyodo)--Business sentiment among those with jobs sensitive to economic conditions in Japan improved at a record fast pace in June, recovering from sharp falls following the earthquake and tsunami in March, which weighed production, exports and retail sales, government data showed Friday.

The diffusion index of confidence among the "economy watchers," such as shop clerks, hotel managers and taxi drivers, rose to 49.6 in June from 36.0 in May, making the biggest gain since the Cabinet Office began keeping records in January 2000.

Recovery in the output of carmakers has had positive effects on related industries as well as on the job market, some respondents said. Others noted an upturn in private demand after a period of restrained spending on leisure and entertainment right after the March 11 natural disaster.

An electronics retail store staff pointed to surging demand for electric fans, saying that people seem to be trying to save electricity by refraining from using more energy-consuming air conditioners, as the country suffers power supply shortages after the disaster crippled some atomic and thermal power stations.

All of the three components -- household spending, corporate activity and employment -- also registered the fastest-ever increase, almost recovering to the levels seen before the quake.

Although remaining below the boom-or-bust threshold of 50, the overall index improved for the third consecutive month, prompting the government to upgrade its basic assessment of the survey and say that the watchers see the economy as remaining in a tough environment due to the disaster but showing "developments toward recovery."

The survey also showed further improvement ahead, with the outlook index, which measures conditions in two to three months' time, rising to 49.0 from 44.9, the third straight monthly growth. The Cabinet Office polled 2,050 people across Japan between June 25 and 30, of whom 1,866, or 91.0 percent, provided valid answers.

Source:The Nikkei July 8,2011

May Current Surplus Y590.7bn, Down 51.7% On Year

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--A big drop in exports after the March 11 earthquake pushed Japan's current account surplus sharply lower in May, but the fall in the headline figure wasn't nearly as severe as what economists expected, boding well for the speed of the nation's economic recovery.

Ministry of Finance data released Friday showed that the surplus fell 51.7% in May from a year earlier to Y590.7 billion before seasonal adjustment. The result was better than the median forecast for a 77.5% on-year fall in the surplus to Y275.5 billion in a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and the Nikkei. The fall marks the third straight drop in the aftermath of the March disaster. In April, the surplus was down 69.5% to Y405.6 billion.

Japan's exports fell by 9.8% from a year earlier in May, while imports gained by 14.7%, the data showed. The ministry said the current account's trade deficit in May was the second biggest on record.

The figures confirm other data showing that while Japan's economy continues to be hit by the March 11 disasters, it is recovering more quickly than expected. Toyota Motor Corp. recently said that it would be restoring full production by July, compared with a previous forecast that it would take until the fall to get total output back to normal levels.

One economist said, however, that the weaker-than-normal figures would likely continue. Japan Research Institute senior economist Hideki Matsumura said that while the economy is expected to improve in coming months "there is uncertainty over whether exports are going to recover strongly while commodity prices remain elevated."

The current account measures trade in goods, services, tourism and investment. It is calculated by determining the difference between Japan's income from foreign sources against payments on foreign obligations and excludes net capital investment.

Source:The Nikkei July 8,2011

BOJ: Consumer Sentiment Worsened At Record Pace After Quake

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Sentiment among Japanese consumers deteriorated at the fastest pace on record in the three months to June, as the earthquake that struck northeast Japan on March 11 darkened the outlook for the domestic economy, a Bank of Japan survey showed Wednesday.

The BOJ's consumer sentiment diffusion index fell to minus 59.5 in June, compared with minus 42.3 in the previous survey conducted before the disaster in March. The result marked the steepest drop since the central bank began conducting the survey on a quarterly basis in June 2004, and was the lowest level since March 2010.

The DI is calculated by subtracting those consumers who say economic conditions are worse than they were a year earlier from those who say they have improved.

For the survey, the BOJ polled 4,000 individuals between May 13 and June 8, receiving responses from 55.8% of them. The bank didn't survey the four prefectures hardest hit by the March earthquake and tsunami--Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima and Ibaraki.

Still, Wednesday's results clearly show the economic impact of the disaster, which caused disruptions in supply chains and raised worries about potential electricity shortages. Consumers tend to remain cautious about the future of the economy for longer than the corporate sector, which is showing signs of improved sentiment amid recovering output.

The central bank's quarterly tankan corporate sentiment survey, released last week, showed business sentiment for large manufacturers is expected to recover by September.

Wednesday's data, however, showed that the index for consumer sentiment for the year ahead worsened to minus 29.6 from minus 21.7 in the previous survey. Meanwhile, the earthquake didn't affect consumers' views on prices very much, according to the survey.

Some 36.0% of those surveyed said prices were unchanged from a year earlier, compared with 35.3% in March, while 50.4% said prices rose either slightly or significantly, almost same as March's 50.3%. The rest said prices fell either slightly or significantly.

Source:The Nikkei July 6,2011

Retailers Sourcing More Fresh Foods Directly From Producers

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Aeon Co. (8267) and other major retailers are increasingly procuring vegetables, meat and other fresh items directly from growers and producers to help allay consumer concerns about quality and food safety.

Supermarket chain operator Aeon will sell domestic beef from local producers in such prefectures as Miyazaki, Kagoshima and Iwate at roughly 1,200 stores nationwide starting this autumn. By cutting out the middleman and other expenses, Aeon will offer prices around 20% less than those of comparable products.

Aeon already sells perishables sourced directly from producers under a private-label brand. It offers roughly 130 private-brand fresh foods and will add an additional 100 this fiscal year, including beef and bananas. The retailer aims to increase private-label goods from 3% of the value of its perishables sales to 10% this fiscal year and 40% in fiscal 2013.

Seven & i Holdings Co. (3382) unit Ito-Yokado Co. seeks to increase vegetables obtained directly from producers by 10% on the year to 230 items. Ito-Yokado will post information online about growers, including their names, their pictures, and their farming methods. It aims to lift sales of such products by around 20% on the year to 15 billion yen in fiscal 2011.

Convenience store operator Lawson Inc. (2651) will this fiscal year more than double the number of stores that sell vegetables procured from an agricultural concern in which it holds a stake. A total of 1,100 stores in the greater Tokyo area now offer such products. This will be expanded to 2,500, including locations in the greater Osaka area.

Fruit and vegetable producers traditionally go through agricultural cooperatives and other entities to bring their goods to the wholesale market, where they are purchased by retailers. More than 80% of domestically grown produce travels through the wholesale market. But since the March 11 earthquake and tsunami set off the crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, consumers have been expressing concern about radiation and food safety. Retailers hope to woo shoppers by offering directly procured products easily traceable to their source.

Source:The Nikkei July 5,2011

Some produce exports hit zero / Exports of agricultural goods plummet following N-crisis

Some farm products such as strawberries, tomatoes and lettuce were not exported at all in May, according to foreign trade statistics, apparently due to concerns over the crisis at Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant.

Japanese farm products are popular in Europe, the United States and Asia. The recent statistics shows that those products are suffering serious losses due to fears about nuclear contamination. According to statistics released by the Finance Ministry, the volume of strawberries exported was 30,267 kilograms in February and 19,262 kilograms in March.

The numbers declined sharply to 419 kilograms in April--a 94 percent drop from the same month last year--and to zero in May. Strawberries are produced mainly in Tochigi, Fukuoka and Kumamoto prefectures and sent mostly to Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore.

Monthly strawberry exports through March had enjoyed levels higher than those of last year, but the nuclear crisis halted the upward trend. No tomatoes or lettuce were exported in May, while 1,417 kilograms of tomatoes and 8,976 kilograms of lettuce were shipped abroad in May last year.

Apple exports, of which Aomori Prefecture is the nation's top producer, declined in April by 86 percent from the same month last year to 106,493 kilograms. The volume also dropped by 89 percent in May compared to last year. The amount of exports in May was 25,748 kilograms.

Source:The Yomiuri Shimbun Jul. 6, 2011

Japan's Electronics Firms To Make More White Goods In Asia

TOKYO (Nikkei)--The nation's electronics manufacturers are increasing production of air conditioners, refrigerators and other home appliances at a hectic pace in the rest of Asia. Demand for power-saving Japanese products is set to expand in emerging countries. But the appliance makers' white goods push is also intended to help offset their woes in TVs and other audiovisual products -- areas where persistent price declines make operations barely profitable.

And with the March 11 disaster increasingly driving Japanese consumers to buy energy-efficient products, the companies plan to export a portion of their Asian-made output back to Japan. Mitsubishi Electric Corp. (6503) will spend hundreds of millions of yen to expand its key air conditioner plant in Thailand by 20% to 90,000 sq. meters. The company will raise output of household air conditioners as well as models for offices and buildings.

Japanese air conditioners, with their high energy efficiency, are gaining popularity in emerging nations. Strengthening production sites closer to the markets would make much greater economic sense for white goods because their bulky sizes mean high transportation costs, company officials say. Mitsubishi Electric aims to increase its air conditioner sales to 600 billion yen in fiscal 2012, up about 30% from fiscal 2010.

Toshiba Corp. (6502) will bolster manufacturing bases in Thailand and China to increase output of refrigerators and washing machines by 20% in volume terms by 2013 through an investment of several billion yen. Toshiba, which already produces the bulk of its white goods outside Japan, will consider not only beefing up existing overseas plants, but also building new factories in Vietnam, Brazil and elsewhere.

Panasonic Corp. (6752) plans to launch a series of plants in India and Brazil from 2012 to make refrigerators, air conditioners and other items. Its air conditioner plants in China and Malaysia are already running at full capacity.

Panasonic suffered an operating loss in its television business last fiscal year -- a stark contrast to its white goods operation, which boasts an operating margin of 7.2%. Prices of white goods do not fall as rapidly as those of audiovisual products, industry observers say.

Source:The Nikkei July 6,2011

Consumers see better futures for selves, not society

A survey of consumer attitudes conducted by major ad agency Hakuhodo Inc. about a month after the March 11 disaster shows that a lot of Japanese were making purchases based on a "support through consumption" mind-set. In other words, they were trying to assist stricken areas by buying products from those places.

The survey asked how respondents evaluate their own futures as well as that of Japanese society as a whole. In previous polls, replies to the same questions had shown a lot of overlap between respondents' expectations for their own lives and the broader society. This time, however, that was not the case.

Those who said society will get worse or slightly worse accounted for 41.4% of total respondents, far surpassing the 15.9% who said society is heading for better or slightly better days. On the other hand, 47.6% were optimistic or somewhat optimistic about their own lives, overwhelming the 16.8% who were pessimistic or slightly pessimistic.

In a report called "Dynamics of Japanese Sei-katsu-sha 2011," issued last year, the Hakuhodo Institute of Life and Living pointed out that Japanese tend to keep their spirits up in three ways:

  • by connecting with other people and the wider society in an altruistic manner;
  • by reevaluating intangible Japanese assets, like mentality and traditions;
  • and by utilizing advanced technologies in information, communications and other fields.

Channel shifting

The April survey underscored that after the disaster, too, social and human connections were buoying people's feelings. Asked what the disaster had made them appreciate anew as precious or wonderful, most respondents pointed to family and friends, along with being alive, their health and laid-back days. As for using media, e-mail through mobile phones ranked high, indicating that Japanese put a lot of value being connected with others close to them.

After the quake, though, connections were not the only focus; opportunities to act for the good of others through consumption was also cited as a way to lift spirits. As many as 86.1% of respondents said that buying things and enjoying leisure activities as usual will benefit the disaster areas and Japan as a whole. This underlines that consumers are intent on participating in efforts to reinvigorate Japanese society.

This mind-set is reflected symbolically in an eagerness for consumption that supports affected areas. In the survey, 69.9% of the respondents expressed a desire to take advantage of campaigns in which a portion of money spent goes to the disaster zone, and 53.2% said they intend to go to specialty fairs and other events related to the afflicted parts of the country. The results show that the channel of choice for post-disaster support is shifting - from donations in the initial days to day-to-day consumption.

Feeling positive

Respondents also said they held in high regard retailers that carry out sales campaigns and events that lend support to disaster areas. Some 63.5% were well-disposed toward retailers keen on aid campaigns, while 61.4% had positive feelings toward retailers holding fairs for products from hard-hit areas.

The poll results offer some useful insights for businesses. For one thing, retailers and service companies would be wise to continuously provide consumers with opportunities to connect with and act in the interest of society. By participating in society through consumption, people can feel they are playing a part in the reconstruction, thereby making them feel more positive about their own lives.

Hakuhodo's earthquake recovery project section conducted the survey April 15-18 via the Internet. It covered 500 men and women ages 15-69 living in a 40km-diameter zone of Tokyo, as well as 300 residents in an Osaka zone with a 20km diameter.

Source:The Nikkei Weekly July 4,2011

Ability to make rice bread turns Gopan home bakery into smash hit

The Gopan home-use bread machine by Sanyo Electric Co., the first in the world that can make bread from rice grains, is becoming a long-term hit product. At one point the manufacturer had to suspend orders, unable to keep up with demand. About five months later, on April 27, it put the machine back on the market, but it remains hard to get for many retailers. What is behind this rare home-appliance phenomenon?

On May 8, shortly after Gopan sales resumed, Mayor Setsuo Otsuka of the village of Yugawa in Fukushima Prefecture appealed to Prime Minister Naoto Kan, visiting the prefecture's tourism office in Tokyo's Yaesu district: "Market penetration by the Gopan will encourage more consumption of rice," he said.

The village in northwest Fukushima is one of the prefecture's main rice-production centers. It recently began a consumer program to subsidize half the cost of Gopan purchases. Otsuka expressed extra urgency on behalf of other rice-producing districts in the prefecture, which has been subject to special warnings and evacuations following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Sanyo opened the Gopan Web site where many Gopan enthusiasts get together.

Support from rice producers is an important factor in Gopan sales. Sanyo began promotions among rice farmers long before the November 2010 introduction, emphasizing aspects of it that could increase rice consumption, leading to greater self-sufficiency in food for Japan. This followed from an order by Sanyo President Seiichiro Sano to go beyond product promotion per se. In April 2010, before the product was announced, Sanyo visited the National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations (Zen-Noh) and asked co-ops nationwide to carry the Gopan. With a positive response from the association, it immediately selected dealers.

"I was completely wrong in assuming that the product would only sell to people who are attracted to novelty, " said Ryoji Kocho, head of Sanyo's marketing division, recalling Gopan's November launch Retailing for about 50,000 yen ($617), the Gopan costs twice as much as most home bread machines. But the many consumer inquiries following the introduction told him it would sell well.

Overwhelming orders

About a month later, the product was a much bigger hit than predicted. Dealers were waiting three to six months for deliveries and screamed, "We can't take any more orders!" Sanyo suspended orders in December, to "start over after rebuilding the supply system."

Even then Sanyo continued to contact local governments and rice farmers. That effort sustained product recognition during the suspension and led to a smooth resumption of sales. Before resuming sales, with future exports in mind, Sanyo sent representatives to rice-producing nations, including Malaysia, where Prime Minister Najib Razak sampled some Gopan bread. The firm is also promoting good eating habits in schools.

Other big contributors to the Gopan phenomenon, which does not include TV commercials, has been social media. Bloggers and people active in social media quickly expressed positive responses to the idea behind Gopan, such as raising food self-sufficiency. The order suspension drew nearly 10,000 tweets on Twitter to Sanyo's survey alone in the first two weeks since the suspension announcement.

Positive comments spread by word of mouth, sometimes pushing Gopan prices far above retail in online auctions. Sanyo actively employed the Internet, setting up a dedicated Gopan blog and offering easy use video instructions through its Web site.

Special attachment

The domestic home-use bread-machine market is still only 600,000 to 700,000 units annually, and Sanyo's market share before Gopan was only a few percent. The Gopan pushed that to 20% in its first three weeks, selling over 60,000 units.

For 70% of people who bought the Gopan, it was their first bread machine. This proves the value of Sanyo's intention to expand the market by emphasizing the product's social value. But it underestimated the potential, perhaps because it did not factor in the "special attachment to rice among Japanese," Kocho said.

The Gopan will be the last hit product that Sanyo will deliver, because Sanyo brands, although it is developing successor models with its parent Panasonic Corp., will be unified with Panasonic in April next year. Rice consumption has been falling in Japan for decades. The Gopan has shown that Japanese people, most of whom have deep roots after centuries of rice-growing, will seize on the rice product.

Source:The Nikkei Weekly July 4,2011

The Office of Commercial Affairs, Royal Thai Embassy in Tokyo, Japan

Source : http://www.depthai.go.th

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