Recently, the Office of the NESDB, in cooperation with Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) organized the brian-stroming session on the final report of project on short-term macroeconomic forecasting mobel at the Siam Bay View Hotel, Pattaya, Chon Buri Province.
Giving and opening remark, Mr.Wirat Wattanasiritham, Secretary-General of NESDB, said that the study project on short-term macroeconomic forecasting model was not conducted under the first-five Letters of Intent (LOI) submitted to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, it was the process to conform to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), as set by the IMF which Thailand has joined since August 9th, 1996. This has been used as primary requirement for IMF members, willing to borrow money from the international money markets, to adopt the uniform process for economic reporting, information updating and dissemination calendars.
Mr. Wirat added that, during the first two years under the IMF agreement, scheduled on December 31, 1998, Thailand had adjust the data dissemination system to meet the IMF standard. On the due period, the IMF would permit more flexibility in frequency and speed of data distribution. However, three specific data will not follow these criteria, as follows;
1) International Monetary Reserve Data must be formulated monthly and distributed within on week. However, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) has formulated and distributed on the weekly basis that is more frequent than the IMF condition.
2) Payment data must be undertaken on quarterly basis, but the BOT has reased them on the monthly basis.
3) The so-called Quarterly Growth Domestic Product (GDP) has not yet been formulated, due to several problems and obstacles, despite the feasibility studies conducted by TDRI.
To precisely forecast short-term economic situations, an acccurate economic model, including the effective data development, is necessary. To develop the data timely for global changes, all relevant public and private agencies have to cooperate in data collection. They should have common understanding to upgrade data quality for policy-making of the government. NESDB Secretary-General, in this regard, hoped for closer collaboration among five major agencies; namely. The BOT, the Miistry of Finance (MOF), the Bureau of Budget, the TDRI, and the Office of the NESDB.
Also explaining background of this project, Mr.Sansern Wongcha-um, Deputy Secretary-General of NESDB, stated that, on August 1997, the office of the NESDB was allocated a sum of money from FY 1997 budget to hire a consultant for the project formulation. TDRI was chosen to conducted research under two main objectives; namely, (1) to upgrade the short-term economic indicators, such as business survey, short-term business cycle index, and quarterly economic forecasts; and (2) to prepare and update the short-term economic data, such as quarterly DGP.
This project comprised three parts, as follows;
1) Business Survey is aimed to collect actual data from business executives in Greater Bangkok.
2) Business Cycle Index emphasized the study of some variables for the construction of main economic indicators in order to serve as early warning signal for policy-making to cope with future fluctuations.
3) Quarterly Econometric Mobel will serve chiefly for short-run forecasts, which will be consistent with the quarterly GDP data, conducted by the Office of the NESDB. The Model will be utilized to predict movements of some important macroeconomic variables and analyze impacts of policy variables upon the economic system.
Deputy Secretary-General disclosed that the forecasting model project is an initial stage of laying out the early warning system in Thailand. Furthermore, the short-term model will help upgrade economic projection capability, as well as map out economic policies and measures compatible with changes in the world economy. The quarterly business survey will also be very useful for short-term economic forecasts, while the business cycle index will show the more accurate economic trend.
--Development News Bulletin, National Economic and Social Development Board, Volume 13, No.9 : September 1998--
Giving and opening remark, Mr.Wirat Wattanasiritham, Secretary-General of NESDB, said that the study project on short-term macroeconomic forecasting model was not conducted under the first-five Letters of Intent (LOI) submitted to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, it was the process to conform to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), as set by the IMF which Thailand has joined since August 9th, 1996. This has been used as primary requirement for IMF members, willing to borrow money from the international money markets, to adopt the uniform process for economic reporting, information updating and dissemination calendars.
Mr. Wirat added that, during the first two years under the IMF agreement, scheduled on December 31, 1998, Thailand had adjust the data dissemination system to meet the IMF standard. On the due period, the IMF would permit more flexibility in frequency and speed of data distribution. However, three specific data will not follow these criteria, as follows;
1) International Monetary Reserve Data must be formulated monthly and distributed within on week. However, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) has formulated and distributed on the weekly basis that is more frequent than the IMF condition.
2) Payment data must be undertaken on quarterly basis, but the BOT has reased them on the monthly basis.
3) The so-called Quarterly Growth Domestic Product (GDP) has not yet been formulated, due to several problems and obstacles, despite the feasibility studies conducted by TDRI.
To precisely forecast short-term economic situations, an acccurate economic model, including the effective data development, is necessary. To develop the data timely for global changes, all relevant public and private agencies have to cooperate in data collection. They should have common understanding to upgrade data quality for policy-making of the government. NESDB Secretary-General, in this regard, hoped for closer collaboration among five major agencies; namely. The BOT, the Miistry of Finance (MOF), the Bureau of Budget, the TDRI, and the Office of the NESDB.
Also explaining background of this project, Mr.Sansern Wongcha-um, Deputy Secretary-General of NESDB, stated that, on August 1997, the office of the NESDB was allocated a sum of money from FY 1997 budget to hire a consultant for the project formulation. TDRI was chosen to conducted research under two main objectives; namely, (1) to upgrade the short-term economic indicators, such as business survey, short-term business cycle index, and quarterly economic forecasts; and (2) to prepare and update the short-term economic data, such as quarterly DGP.
This project comprised three parts, as follows;
1) Business Survey is aimed to collect actual data from business executives in Greater Bangkok.
2) Business Cycle Index emphasized the study of some variables for the construction of main economic indicators in order to serve as early warning signal for policy-making to cope with future fluctuations.
3) Quarterly Econometric Mobel will serve chiefly for short-run forecasts, which will be consistent with the quarterly GDP data, conducted by the Office of the NESDB. The Model will be utilized to predict movements of some important macroeconomic variables and analyze impacts of policy variables upon the economic system.
Deputy Secretary-General disclosed that the forecasting model project is an initial stage of laying out the early warning system in Thailand. Furthermore, the short-term model will help upgrade economic projection capability, as well as map out economic policies and measures compatible with changes in the world economy. The quarterly business survey will also be very useful for short-term economic forecasts, while the business cycle index will show the more accurate economic trend.
--Development News Bulletin, National Economic and Social Development Board, Volume 13, No.9 : September 1998--