1. Overview
The Thai economy in the second quarter of 2001 measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 1.9 percent, slightly increase when compared to 1.8 percent in the first quarter. The seasonally adjusted Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter increased 0.9 percent so the growth of the first half year was 1.9 percent lower than 5.8 percent in the previous year.
The engine of growth mainly came from domestic factors, comprising of private consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation which grew by 3.5 and 5.3 percent respectively. The decline of 6.9 percent in imports of goods and services played an important role to stimulate expansion of import-substituted production for higher consumption and investment.
However, the negative factors were real income from exports of goods and services which decreased by 1.4 percent and general government consumption decreased by 0.3 percent.
The GDP deflator increased 3.2 percent higher than 2.7 percent in the previous quarter. The consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) grew up 2.5 and 4.2 percent respectively. GDP in this quarter valued at Baht 1,249.8 billion and after deducted by Baht 13.2 billion of net factor income payment from the rest of the world, the value of Gross National Product (GNP) left at Baht 1,236.6 billion with growth by 2.6 percent in real term value.
2. Production
2.1 Agricultural sector: it expanded 2.0 percent higher than 1.7 percent in the previous quarter due to an expansion of crops and livestock especially rubber, soybeans, fruits and chicken.
2.2 Non-agricultural sector: it increased by 1.9 percent compared to 1.8 percent in the previous quarter. The expanded sectors:
- Transports and communication: expanded 4.4 percent higher than 3.6 percent in the first quarter due to an increase of turnover of the Telephone Organization of Thailand.
- Manufacturing: increased 1.5 percent, the same as last quarter. The light industries, and raw material and semi-finished products industries grew by 3.2 and 7.6 percent respectively. While the capital goods industries contracted at 5.6 percent.
- Financial institution: increased by 1.0 percent slightly better than the previous quarter because of the higher commercial bank net revenue.
- Services: there were some expanded items such as health services, community services and personal services. The decelerated sectors:
- Hotel and restaurant: expanded at a slower pace by 4.7 percent compared to 4.9 percent in the first quarter. It slowed down in accordance with the number of foreign tourists that grew up only 7.5 percent lower than 8.0 percent in the previous quarter. However, it showed satisfactory growth due to offensive marketing strategy of tourism.
- Electricity: expanded by 5.5 percent compared to 6.0 percent in the previous quarter.
- Wholesale and retail trade: sluggishly grew at 2.2 percent in accordance with the slowdown of economy and imported goods.
The contracted sector:
- Construction: it was the only sector that still continually decreased by 10.9 percent worse than 5.5 percent contracted in the first quarter.
3. Expenditure
3.1 Household Consumption Expenditure This sector rose by 3.5 percent higher than 3.3 percent in the previous quarter as a result of income from farm including an increase of civil servants salary started from April 1, 2001, and low interest rate. The major categories were transports and communication, especially the tele-communication which there were various types of sales promotion in order to activate the sales volume; and purchase of motor vehicles which new models were launched. Consumption on foods and others were likely to stable except meats, fishes and clothing that slowed down.
3.2 Government Consumption Expenditure (GCE) GCE at current prices was recorded at Baht 145,565 million with the growth of 5.2 percent mainly due to the increase of civil servants salary twice a year. In real term, it contracted 0.3 percent, comprising of the compensation of employees increasing at 0.2 percent while purchase from enterprises and abroad decreasing by 1.3 percent respectively. The decline in this sector mainly came from the reduced number of civil servants in the early retirement program and the disbursement from the economic stimulus loans was finalized.
3.3 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) GFCF increased by 5.3 percent compared to 5.8 percent contracted in the first quarter as a result of the sluggish expansion in private and the increase in the public investment.
- Private investment: expanded by 4.8 percent lower than 8.9 percent in the first quarter in line with the increase in residential and commercial construction, while machinery and equipments investment declined.
- Public investment: expanded by 6.3 percent. The construction was dropped down but the machinery and equipments was increased due to the purchase of two airplanes by the Thai Airways International PCL. However, the public investment would be contracted by 10.9 percent if the investment in airplanes was excluded.
4. External sectors
4.1 Income from exports: it valued at Baht 709,000 million with the growth of 16.7 percent. In term of U.S. dollar, it was US$15,635 million which decreased 0.6 percent. Nevertheless, in real term, the exports of goods declined by 1.6 percent.
4.2 Payments for imports: the imports of goods were Baht 690,834 million which rose by 20.8 percent. In term of U.S. dollar, it valued at US$15,233 million which increased by 2.9 percent. It implied that the importers had to take a burden from the depreciation of Baht but the exporters gained benefit from this. Nevertheless, the real term of imported goods contracted by 10.0 percent better than 5.9 percent contracted in the previous quarter.
4.3 Trade and services balance: there was a surplus on trade and services balance at Baht 52.6 billion. When the net factor income and transfer from the rest of the world were included, there was Baht 6.3 billion deficit but the current account surplus at Baht 46.3 billion which equaled to 3.7 percent of the GDP lower than 4.7 percent in the previous quarter.
--National Economic and Social Development Board--
-SS-
The Thai economy in the second quarter of 2001 measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 1.9 percent, slightly increase when compared to 1.8 percent in the first quarter. The seasonally adjusted Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter increased 0.9 percent so the growth of the first half year was 1.9 percent lower than 5.8 percent in the previous year.
The engine of growth mainly came from domestic factors, comprising of private consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation which grew by 3.5 and 5.3 percent respectively. The decline of 6.9 percent in imports of goods and services played an important role to stimulate expansion of import-substituted production for higher consumption and investment.
However, the negative factors were real income from exports of goods and services which decreased by 1.4 percent and general government consumption decreased by 0.3 percent.
The GDP deflator increased 3.2 percent higher than 2.7 percent in the previous quarter. The consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) grew up 2.5 and 4.2 percent respectively. GDP in this quarter valued at Baht 1,249.8 billion and after deducted by Baht 13.2 billion of net factor income payment from the rest of the world, the value of Gross National Product (GNP) left at Baht 1,236.6 billion with growth by 2.6 percent in real term value.
2. Production
2.1 Agricultural sector: it expanded 2.0 percent higher than 1.7 percent in the previous quarter due to an expansion of crops and livestock especially rubber, soybeans, fruits and chicken.
2.2 Non-agricultural sector: it increased by 1.9 percent compared to 1.8 percent in the previous quarter. The expanded sectors:
- Transports and communication: expanded 4.4 percent higher than 3.6 percent in the first quarter due to an increase of turnover of the Telephone Organization of Thailand.
- Manufacturing: increased 1.5 percent, the same as last quarter. The light industries, and raw material and semi-finished products industries grew by 3.2 and 7.6 percent respectively. While the capital goods industries contracted at 5.6 percent.
- Financial institution: increased by 1.0 percent slightly better than the previous quarter because of the higher commercial bank net revenue.
- Services: there were some expanded items such as health services, community services and personal services. The decelerated sectors:
- Hotel and restaurant: expanded at a slower pace by 4.7 percent compared to 4.9 percent in the first quarter. It slowed down in accordance with the number of foreign tourists that grew up only 7.5 percent lower than 8.0 percent in the previous quarter. However, it showed satisfactory growth due to offensive marketing strategy of tourism.
- Electricity: expanded by 5.5 percent compared to 6.0 percent in the previous quarter.
- Wholesale and retail trade: sluggishly grew at 2.2 percent in accordance with the slowdown of economy and imported goods.
The contracted sector:
- Construction: it was the only sector that still continually decreased by 10.9 percent worse than 5.5 percent contracted in the first quarter.
3. Expenditure
3.1 Household Consumption Expenditure This sector rose by 3.5 percent higher than 3.3 percent in the previous quarter as a result of income from farm including an increase of civil servants salary started from April 1, 2001, and low interest rate. The major categories were transports and communication, especially the tele-communication which there were various types of sales promotion in order to activate the sales volume; and purchase of motor vehicles which new models were launched. Consumption on foods and others were likely to stable except meats, fishes and clothing that slowed down.
3.2 Government Consumption Expenditure (GCE) GCE at current prices was recorded at Baht 145,565 million with the growth of 5.2 percent mainly due to the increase of civil servants salary twice a year. In real term, it contracted 0.3 percent, comprising of the compensation of employees increasing at 0.2 percent while purchase from enterprises and abroad decreasing by 1.3 percent respectively. The decline in this sector mainly came from the reduced number of civil servants in the early retirement program and the disbursement from the economic stimulus loans was finalized.
3.3 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) GFCF increased by 5.3 percent compared to 5.8 percent contracted in the first quarter as a result of the sluggish expansion in private and the increase in the public investment.
- Private investment: expanded by 4.8 percent lower than 8.9 percent in the first quarter in line with the increase in residential and commercial construction, while machinery and equipments investment declined.
- Public investment: expanded by 6.3 percent. The construction was dropped down but the machinery and equipments was increased due to the purchase of two airplanes by the Thai Airways International PCL. However, the public investment would be contracted by 10.9 percent if the investment in airplanes was excluded.
4. External sectors
4.1 Income from exports: it valued at Baht 709,000 million with the growth of 16.7 percent. In term of U.S. dollar, it was US$15,635 million which decreased 0.6 percent. Nevertheless, in real term, the exports of goods declined by 1.6 percent.
4.2 Payments for imports: the imports of goods were Baht 690,834 million which rose by 20.8 percent. In term of U.S. dollar, it valued at US$15,233 million which increased by 2.9 percent. It implied that the importers had to take a burden from the depreciation of Baht but the exporters gained benefit from this. Nevertheless, the real term of imported goods contracted by 10.0 percent better than 5.9 percent contracted in the previous quarter.
4.3 Trade and services balance: there was a surplus on trade and services balance at Baht 52.6 billion. When the net factor income and transfer from the rest of the world were included, there was Baht 6.3 billion deficit but the current account surplus at Baht 46.3 billion which equaled to 3.7 percent of the GDP lower than 4.7 percent in the previous quarter.
--National Economic and Social Development Board--
-SS-