Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (Y/Y at constant 1988 prices)
(%) 2000 2001
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Agriculture -2.2 5.7 4.6 3.5 1.7 1.6 -0.9
Non-agriculture 6.2 6.4 2.8 3.1 1.8 1.9 1.7
GDP 5.3 6.4 2.9 3.2 1.8 1.9 1.5
GDP (Seasonally Adjusted, Q/Q) 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 -0.2 0.7 0.0
GDP 9 Months 4.8 1.7
THAILAND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Q3/2001
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in the third quarter of 2001 slowed down
to 1.5 percent compared to 1.8 and 1.9 percent in the first and the second quarter of this year,
respectively. The growth of the first nine months also slowed down to 1.7 percent compared to 4.8
percent in the previous year.
The contribution to growth was mainly from domestic demand. The household consumption,
government consumption and gross fixed capital formation expanded by 2.8, 0.7 and 0.5 percent,
respectively. Although the export of goods and services decreased by 8.0 percent, the import dropped
more at 11.8 percent which caused an increase in production to meet domestic consumption and investment
level.
The seasonally adjusted GDP in this quarter had a zero growth, compared to a slightly increase
in the previous quarter. It was obvious that current economy was slowing down gradually.
The GDP implicit deflator increased by 2.4 percent, lower than 3.3 percent in the previous
quarter. While the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) increased by 1.7 and 2.6
percent, respectively.
Gross Domestic Product in this quarter valued at Baht 1,258.1 billion and after deducted
by net factor income payment from the rest of the world, Baht 19.7 billion, the value of Gross National
Product was Baht 1,238.4 billion with an expansion of 1.1 percent, in real term.
Production
Agriculture dropped by 0.9 percent as a result of 4.6 percent declined in crops, especially
yields of second paddy, maize, vegetables and fruits. While livestock and fisheries grew by 9.3 and
1.9 percent, respectively. Non-agriculture expanded by 1.7 percent, lower than 1.9 percent in the
previous quarter.
- Manufacturing sector slightly grew by 0.9 percent owing to 5.6, and 3.2 percent growth
of raw materials and light industries respectively. While capital goods and high technology
industries dropped by 5.6 percent.
- Construction sector expanded by 3.2 percent due to higher private construction.
- Transportation and communication sector decelerated by 2.9 percent, somewhat lower
than those in the previous quarter. Nevertheless, telecommunication services continued to grow at
6.7 percent.
- Wholesale and retail trade sector expanded at a slow pace of 0.4 percent in accordance
with a slowdown of the whole economy, a decrease in import and high competition among huge wholesalers.
- Hotel and restaurant sector expanded at lower rate, 3.8 percent, in line with 5.9 percent
growth of foreign tourists which was lower than 11.6 percent in the previous year as a result of
a decreased number of tourists from Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.
- Financial intermediation sector showed continuous recovery with the growth rate of 2.4
percent as a result of higher commercial banks' net revenues and dividend, and lower bad debts.
GDP : Manufacturing Sector Classified By Types
2000 2001
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3
Light Industries 1.0 -2.2 -4.8 3.2 3.2 3.2
Raw Material Industries 6.3 7.0 0.8 0.2 7.9 5.6
Capital Goods Industries 17.7 23.7 17.7 -0.2 -5.5 -5.6
GDP Major Manufacturing Sectors
2000 2001
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3
Expanded Industries:
Foods -8.3 -15.6 -21.1 -0.9 0.6 5.0
Leather 5.5 27.4 16.0 7.6 12.1 5.4
Woods products -15.1 26.4 10.4 4.8 3.7 1.8
Printing 17.5 16.7 -3.0 0.7 8.3 9.2
Petroleum refinery -2.1 -4.8 -0.6 0.7 7.7 3.3
Chemical products 19.4 14.3 1.3 0.1 14.8 12.1
Plastic 9.7 11.2 9.5 -0.6 5.1 2.6
Non-metallic products 5.3 13.4 -5.1 -2.1 8.3 10.3
Basic metal products 16.4 16.0 9.7 2.5 2.7 6.4
Fabricated metal products 21.0 20.8 8.5 7.1 5.3 6.4
Machinery 14.2 25.2 35.6 9.1 12.9 17.4
Medical equipment -24.9 54.0 -12.9 19.0 -8.2 28.1
Motor vehicles 59.9 32.3 5.9 28.3 31.7 36.4
Other vehicles -17.0 14.3 -9.2 2.0 8.4 24.3
Furniture 42.7 16.3 15.9 14.1 6.7 8.1
Contracted Industries:
Tobacco 9.0 -15.6 17.3 -4.3 -3.1 -4.2
Textile -0.3 1.8 -1.8 0.7 0.0 -0.6
Wearing apparel -2.6 2.1 4.3 5.1 4.3 -1.9
Paper products 1.8 23.2 1.6 2.6 -2.6 -6.5
Office equipments 8.0 17.9 20.4 -13.3 -20.6 -16.5
Radio and T.V. 43.7 27.0 24.9 -9.5 -19.3 -24.9
Electrical appliances -2.6 16.4 23.0 -14.9 -28.3 -39.1
Expenditure
Household consumption expenditure
Household consumption expenditure increased by 2.8 percent, compared to 3.6 percent in the
previous quarter due to slow growth of the whole economy. However, the expenditure on foods, beverages,
tobacco and textiles still increased by 2.8 percent and transport equipment expenditure substantially
increased by 23.8 percent. The expenditure on hotel and restaurant services, and electricity and water
supply expanded by 3.5 and 10.5 percent, respectively. Nevertheless the transport and communication
services grew only by 0.8 percent while consumption on agricultural products shrank by 2.8 percent.
Government consumption expenditure
Government consumption expenditure at current prices valued at Baht 166,273 million with an
expansion of 5.5 percent which accelerated from 3.2 and 3.6. percent in the first and the second quarter
of this year. It increased due to the delay payment of civil servant salary from the first half fiscal
year as the twice salary increase a year policy for civil servants and permanent government employees.
Gross fixed capital formation
Gross fixed capital formation or investment increased by 0.5 percent in line with the
government budget disbursement acceleration measure in the last quarter of the previous fiscal year.
- Private investment dropped by 1.8 percent due to 5.6 percent shrank in machinery and
equipments. Nevertheless, construction continually expanded with the growth rate of 9.3 percent.
- Public investment expanded by 3.2 percent. This came from 10.5 and 0.4 percent increase
on machinery and equipments, and construction, respectively. Although central and local government
authorities construction decreased, state enterprises construction remained in expansion such as the
construction of the metropolitan rapid transit train in the Chalermratchamongkol route and the renovation
of ground services building at Don-Muang International Airport.
Change in inventories
The change in inventories in this quarter recorded at Baht 21,881 million, decreased from
the previous quarter due to the dropped down on seasonal agricultural products such as paddy and sugar,
and a decrease of the major manufacturing products and raw material particularly electronics and
electrical appliances.
External sectors
The export of goods at current prices in this quarter was Baht 718,865 million which decreased
by 2.5 percent. In terms of U.S. dollar, it was 16,010 million U.S dollar which decreased by 11.1 percent.
The import of goods at current prices was Baht 673,936 million which decreased by 0.2 percent. In terms
of U.S. dollar, it was 15,005 million U.S. dollar which decreased by 9.1 percent.
Trade and services balance had a surplus at Baht 87.5 billion and after deducted by deficit net factor
income and transfer from the rest of the world, Baht 11.8 billion, the current account was surplus at
Baht 75.7 billion, equal to 6.0 percent of the total GDP, higher than 3.7 percent in the previous quarter.
GDP implicit deflator
The GDP implicit deflator increased by 2.4 percent, down from 3.3 percent in the previous
quarter. The consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI) rose by 1.7 and 2.6 percent,
respectively.
Table 1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Product (GNP)
Unit : Billions of Baht
1999 p 2000 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Sep.
GDP Nominal Prices (Billions of Baht) 4,615 4,901 1,219 1,189 1,211 1,282 1,273 1,251 1,258 3,618 3,782
GDP 1988 Prices (Billions of Baht) 2,859 2,985 757 722 729 777 770 735 740 2,208 2,245
Growth Rate of Real GDP 4.2 4.4 5.3 6.4 2.9 3.2 1.8 1.9 1.5 4.8 1.7
(% y.o.y.)
GNP Nominal Prices (Billions of Baht) 4,488 4,831 1,204 1,169 1,193 1,265 1,267 1,239 1,238 3,566 3,744
GNP 1988 Prices (Billions of Baht) 2,803 2,968 754 715 726 773 773 734 734 2,195 2,241
Growth Rate of Real GNP 4.9 5.9 8.3 7.7 4.3 3.5 2.5 2.7 1.1 6.8 2.1
(% y.o.y.)
Table 2 Growth Rate of Real GDP Classified by ISIC (year on year basis)
Unit: Percent
1999 p 2000 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Sep.
Agriculture 2.7 2.7 -2.2 5.7 4.6 3.5 1.7 1.6 -0.9 2.3 0.9
Agriculture, Hunting & Forestry 4.1 3.1 -0.4 4.6 6.5 3.2 0.8 1.9 -1.5 3.1 0.5
Fishing -3.9 0.2 -10.6 12.0 -3.1 5.1 6.7 0.1 1.9 -1.7 3.0
Non-Agriculture 4.4 4.6 6.2 6.4 2.8 3.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 5.1 1.8
Mining & Quarrying 9.0 4.7 13.5 9.0 3.1 -5.2 -7.1 2.1 4.4 8.3 -0.1
Manufacturing 11.5 5.9 8.0 8.1 3.6 4.0 1.4 1.7 0.9 6.5 1.3
Electricity, Gas & Water supply 3.7 10.4 10.9 11.8 5.3 13.8 6.0 5.5 6.4 9.2 5.9
Construction -5.4 -9.7 6.8 -0.3 -14.9 -26.6 -5.5 -10.9 3.2 -4.5 -3.9
Wholesale & Retail Trade, Repairs 3.6 2.9 3.4 4.2 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.6 0.4 3.2 1.8
Hotel & Restaurants 6.1 6.0 7.5 6.8 4.6 5.1 4.9 4.7 3.8 6.3 4.5
Transport, Storage & Communication 6.4 8.1 7.5 5.7 7.8 11.1 3.6 5.0 2.9 7.0 3.8
Financial Intermediation -38.8 -5.6 -6.4 -5.6 -6.1 -3.9 0.3 1.1 2.4 -6.0 1.3
Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities 4.4 4.5 4.9 6.8 1.4 5.2 3.7 2.9 3.3 4.3 3.3
Public Administration & Defence etc. 1.5 1.7 -0.7 9.1 4.4 -5.4 2.6 -3.4 0.0 4.1 -0.2
Education 1.5 3.0 6.3 5.4 2.5 -1.9 -3.9 -3.3 -0.2 4.7 -2.5
Health & Social Work 1.3 9.1 3.7 8.9 8.4 15.2 2.9 3.4 4.1 7.0 3.5
Other Community, Social & Personal Services 12.4 7.3 10.4 7.9 6.8 4.3 3.2 3.9 1.8 8.3 3.0
Private Household with Employed Persons -1.1 -0.3 2.7 4.1 -0.7 -7.1 -2.6 5.3 2.9 2.0 1.7
GDP 4.2 4.4 5.3 6.4 2.9 3.2 1.8 1.9 1.5 4.8 1.7
Table 3 Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Expenditure (year on year basis)
Unit: Percent
1999 p 2000 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Sep.
Private Consumption Expenditure 4.0 4.3 4.8 5.2 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.6 2.8 4.5 3.3
Government Consumption Expenditure 0.9 6.5 14.3 12.0 7.1 -5.3 1.1 -1.3 0.7 10.8 0.2
Gross Capital Formation 7.2 11.8 26.6 18.6 5.6 -1.2 -1.1 -7.9 -2.9 16.9 -4.0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -4.0 5.4 24.9 1.8 -1.7 -0.2 -5.8 5.0 0.5 7.4 -0.3
Private -5.0 14.6 18.6 14.0 16.7 10.1 8.9 4.3 -1.8 16.3 3.9
Public -2.8 -6.1 33.8 -15.2 -17.6 -15.9 -24.0 6.3 3.2 -3.1 -6.0
Change in Inventories 107.9 815.6 45.0 1,514.7 52.6 -10.8 42.8 -92.53 -52.7 407.7 -61.6
Exports of Goods and Services 9.9 17.1 21.9 17.4 20.9 9.7 -2.0 -1.1 -8.0 20.1 -3.9
Goods 12.2 22.1 35.2 19.5 24.9 12.0 -3.5 -1.6 -10.6 26.2 -5.5
Services 2.4 -1.1 -14.5 8.4 4.5 0.9 4.6 1.2 4.7 -1.8 3.5
Imports of Goods and Services 10.6 22.0 44.5 16.5 23.8 9.3 -3.5 -7.0 -11.8 27.0 -7.6
Goods 13.0 25.1 52.2 21.0 24.3 10.6 -6.0 -10.0 -14.4 30.8 -10.2
Services 1.3 8.1 12.2 -2.8 21.2 3.6 10.5 9.1 0.5 9.9 6.2
Gross Domestic Expenditure 5.0 6.2 5.6 10.5 6.0 3.2 2.0 2.8 1.5 7.3 2.1
Table 4 Exports, Imports and Current Accounts (at current market prices)
Unit: Billions of Baht
1999 p 2000 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Sep.
Exports of Goods and Services 2,699 3,290 747 735 875 933 837 839 865 2,357 2,541
Rate of Growth ( % y.o.y.) -0.7 21.9 18.9 17.7 26.6 23.6 12.0 14.2 -1.2 21.2 7.8
Imports of Goods and Services 2,116 2,870 614 656 775 824 777 787 778 2,046 2,341
Rate of Growth ( % y.o.y.) 6.7 35.6 40.5 28.4 40.7 33.7 26.5 19.9 0.3 36.4 14.4
Trade and Services Balance 583 420 133 78 100 109 60 52 87 311 199
Percentage to GDP (%) 12.6 8.6 10.9 6.6 8.3 8.5 4.7 4.2 7.0 8.6 5.3
Factor Income From Abroad , Net -126 -69 -14 -20 -17 -18 -7 -12 -20 -51 -39
Current Transfers From Abroad , Net 13 21 6 6 4 5 6 6 8 16 20
Current Account Balance 470 372 125 64 87 96 59 46 75 276 180
Percentage to GDP (%) 10.2 7.6 10.2 5.4 7.2 7.5 4.6 3.7 6.0 7.6 4.8
Table 5 Growth Rate of GDP Deflator, Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index (1988 = 100)
(year on year basis)
Unit: Percent
1999 p 2000 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Sep.
GDP Implicit Price Deflator -4.3 1.7 -0.4 2.0 2.8 2.4 2.7 3.3 2.4 1.4 2.8
Consumer Price Index 0.3 1.5 0.8 1.6 2.2 1.6 1.4 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.9
Producer Price Index -6.5 3.9 2.0 3.7 5.5 4.5 2.8 4.2 2.6 3.7 3.2
Table 6 Contribution to Growth of Real GDP (1988 = 100)
Unit: Percent
1999 p 2000 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Sep.
Demand Side (Expenditure) 4.9 6.1 5.5 10.2 6.0 3.2 2.0 2.8 1.6 7.2 2.1
Domestic Demand 1.4 4.0 7.8 4.4 2.4 1.5 0.7 2.8 1.7 4.9 1.7
Private Consumption Expenditure 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.5 2.5 1.8
Government Consumption Expenditure 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.8 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.1 1.0 0.0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -0.8 1.0 4.2 0.4 -0.4 0.0 -1.1 1.0 0.1 1.4 0.0
Net Exports 1.3 0.9 -3.0 2.5 2.2 2.0 0.3 2.7 0.5 0.5 1.2
Exports of Goods and Services 5.5 9.9 11.6 9.7 12.6 6.1 -1.2 -0.7 -5.7 11.3 -2.5
Imports of Goods and Services 4.1 9.0 14.6 7.3 10.3 4.1 -1.6 -3.4 -6.2 10.8 -3.7
Change in Inventories 2.2 1.3 0.7 3.3 1.4 -0.2 0.9 -2.7 -0.6 1.8 -0.8
Supply Side (Production) 4.2 4.4 5.3 6.4 2.9 3.2 1.8 1.9 1.5 4.8 1.7
Agriculture 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1
Manufacturing 3.9 2.1 2.8 2.9 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 2.4 0.5
Construction -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Services and Others 0.3 2.3 2.5 2.9 1.8 2.0 1.2 1.4 1.1 2.4 1.2
Note: Total in demand side does not be equal to supply side due to statistical discrepancy.
Table 7 Growth Rate of Major Items of Real GDP and GDE, Quarter on Quarter Basis (1988 = 100)
(Seasonally Adjusted Figures)
Unit: Percent
1999 p 2000 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Sep.
Demand Side (Expenditure)
Private Consumption Expenditure 3.9 4.4 -0.9 0.7 2.0 1.5 -0.4 0.6 1.0 4.8 3.4
Government Consumption Expenditure 1.4 7.2 -2.0 4.3 -3.8 -4.0 5.6 0.8 -1.4 12.0 0.3
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -17.5 6.2 13.1 -13.9 1.1 -1.3 8.4 -4.8 -0.9 9.4 -1.2
Supply Side (Production)
Agriculture 3.6 3.0 0.6 3.9 2.3 -3.3 -0.6 3.5 -0.6 2.9 0.8
Manufacturing 11.6 5.9 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.0 -1.9 1.0 0.0 6.6 1.4
Construction -5.9 -9.2 -4.6 -3.3 -10.2 -10.5 21.2 -8.7 4.1 -3.3 -4.9
Services and Others 0.5 4.5 2.0 -0.2 0.6 1.5 0.2 0.5 -0.1 4.7 2.4
Gross Domestic Product 4.3 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 -0.2 0.7 0.0 5.0 1.7
--National Economic and Social Development Board--
-SS-
(%) 2000 2001
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Agriculture -2.2 5.7 4.6 3.5 1.7 1.6 -0.9
Non-agriculture 6.2 6.4 2.8 3.1 1.8 1.9 1.7
GDP 5.3 6.4 2.9 3.2 1.8 1.9 1.5
GDP (Seasonally Adjusted, Q/Q) 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 -0.2 0.7 0.0
GDP 9 Months 4.8 1.7
THAILAND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Q3/2001
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in the third quarter of 2001 slowed down
to 1.5 percent compared to 1.8 and 1.9 percent in the first and the second quarter of this year,
respectively. The growth of the first nine months also slowed down to 1.7 percent compared to 4.8
percent in the previous year.
The contribution to growth was mainly from domestic demand. The household consumption,
government consumption and gross fixed capital formation expanded by 2.8, 0.7 and 0.5 percent,
respectively. Although the export of goods and services decreased by 8.0 percent, the import dropped
more at 11.8 percent which caused an increase in production to meet domestic consumption and investment
level.
The seasonally adjusted GDP in this quarter had a zero growth, compared to a slightly increase
in the previous quarter. It was obvious that current economy was slowing down gradually.
The GDP implicit deflator increased by 2.4 percent, lower than 3.3 percent in the previous
quarter. While the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) increased by 1.7 and 2.6
percent, respectively.
Gross Domestic Product in this quarter valued at Baht 1,258.1 billion and after deducted
by net factor income payment from the rest of the world, Baht 19.7 billion, the value of Gross National
Product was Baht 1,238.4 billion with an expansion of 1.1 percent, in real term.
Production
Agriculture dropped by 0.9 percent as a result of 4.6 percent declined in crops, especially
yields of second paddy, maize, vegetables and fruits. While livestock and fisheries grew by 9.3 and
1.9 percent, respectively. Non-agriculture expanded by 1.7 percent, lower than 1.9 percent in the
previous quarter.
- Manufacturing sector slightly grew by 0.9 percent owing to 5.6, and 3.2 percent growth
of raw materials and light industries respectively. While capital goods and high technology
industries dropped by 5.6 percent.
- Construction sector expanded by 3.2 percent due to higher private construction.
- Transportation and communication sector decelerated by 2.9 percent, somewhat lower
than those in the previous quarter. Nevertheless, telecommunication services continued to grow at
6.7 percent.
- Wholesale and retail trade sector expanded at a slow pace of 0.4 percent in accordance
with a slowdown of the whole economy, a decrease in import and high competition among huge wholesalers.
- Hotel and restaurant sector expanded at lower rate, 3.8 percent, in line with 5.9 percent
growth of foreign tourists which was lower than 11.6 percent in the previous year as a result of
a decreased number of tourists from Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.
- Financial intermediation sector showed continuous recovery with the growth rate of 2.4
percent as a result of higher commercial banks' net revenues and dividend, and lower bad debts.
GDP : Manufacturing Sector Classified By Types
2000 2001
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3
Light Industries 1.0 -2.2 -4.8 3.2 3.2 3.2
Raw Material Industries 6.3 7.0 0.8 0.2 7.9 5.6
Capital Goods Industries 17.7 23.7 17.7 -0.2 -5.5 -5.6
GDP Major Manufacturing Sectors
2000 2001
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3
Expanded Industries:
Foods -8.3 -15.6 -21.1 -0.9 0.6 5.0
Leather 5.5 27.4 16.0 7.6 12.1 5.4
Woods products -15.1 26.4 10.4 4.8 3.7 1.8
Printing 17.5 16.7 -3.0 0.7 8.3 9.2
Petroleum refinery -2.1 -4.8 -0.6 0.7 7.7 3.3
Chemical products 19.4 14.3 1.3 0.1 14.8 12.1
Plastic 9.7 11.2 9.5 -0.6 5.1 2.6
Non-metallic products 5.3 13.4 -5.1 -2.1 8.3 10.3
Basic metal products 16.4 16.0 9.7 2.5 2.7 6.4
Fabricated metal products 21.0 20.8 8.5 7.1 5.3 6.4
Machinery 14.2 25.2 35.6 9.1 12.9 17.4
Medical equipment -24.9 54.0 -12.9 19.0 -8.2 28.1
Motor vehicles 59.9 32.3 5.9 28.3 31.7 36.4
Other vehicles -17.0 14.3 -9.2 2.0 8.4 24.3
Furniture 42.7 16.3 15.9 14.1 6.7 8.1
Contracted Industries:
Tobacco 9.0 -15.6 17.3 -4.3 -3.1 -4.2
Textile -0.3 1.8 -1.8 0.7 0.0 -0.6
Wearing apparel -2.6 2.1 4.3 5.1 4.3 -1.9
Paper products 1.8 23.2 1.6 2.6 -2.6 -6.5
Office equipments 8.0 17.9 20.4 -13.3 -20.6 -16.5
Radio and T.V. 43.7 27.0 24.9 -9.5 -19.3 -24.9
Electrical appliances -2.6 16.4 23.0 -14.9 -28.3 -39.1
Expenditure
Household consumption expenditure
Household consumption expenditure increased by 2.8 percent, compared to 3.6 percent in the
previous quarter due to slow growth of the whole economy. However, the expenditure on foods, beverages,
tobacco and textiles still increased by 2.8 percent and transport equipment expenditure substantially
increased by 23.8 percent. The expenditure on hotel and restaurant services, and electricity and water
supply expanded by 3.5 and 10.5 percent, respectively. Nevertheless the transport and communication
services grew only by 0.8 percent while consumption on agricultural products shrank by 2.8 percent.
Government consumption expenditure
Government consumption expenditure at current prices valued at Baht 166,273 million with an
expansion of 5.5 percent which accelerated from 3.2 and 3.6. percent in the first and the second quarter
of this year. It increased due to the delay payment of civil servant salary from the first half fiscal
year as the twice salary increase a year policy for civil servants and permanent government employees.
Gross fixed capital formation
Gross fixed capital formation or investment increased by 0.5 percent in line with the
government budget disbursement acceleration measure in the last quarter of the previous fiscal year.
- Private investment dropped by 1.8 percent due to 5.6 percent shrank in machinery and
equipments. Nevertheless, construction continually expanded with the growth rate of 9.3 percent.
- Public investment expanded by 3.2 percent. This came from 10.5 and 0.4 percent increase
on machinery and equipments, and construction, respectively. Although central and local government
authorities construction decreased, state enterprises construction remained in expansion such as the
construction of the metropolitan rapid transit train in the Chalermratchamongkol route and the renovation
of ground services building at Don-Muang International Airport.
Change in inventories
The change in inventories in this quarter recorded at Baht 21,881 million, decreased from
the previous quarter due to the dropped down on seasonal agricultural products such as paddy and sugar,
and a decrease of the major manufacturing products and raw material particularly electronics and
electrical appliances.
External sectors
The export of goods at current prices in this quarter was Baht 718,865 million which decreased
by 2.5 percent. In terms of U.S. dollar, it was 16,010 million U.S dollar which decreased by 11.1 percent.
The import of goods at current prices was Baht 673,936 million which decreased by 0.2 percent. In terms
of U.S. dollar, it was 15,005 million U.S. dollar which decreased by 9.1 percent.
Trade and services balance had a surplus at Baht 87.5 billion and after deducted by deficit net factor
income and transfer from the rest of the world, Baht 11.8 billion, the current account was surplus at
Baht 75.7 billion, equal to 6.0 percent of the total GDP, higher than 3.7 percent in the previous quarter.
GDP implicit deflator
The GDP implicit deflator increased by 2.4 percent, down from 3.3 percent in the previous
quarter. The consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI) rose by 1.7 and 2.6 percent,
respectively.
Table 1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Product (GNP)
Unit : Billions of Baht
1999 p 2000 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Sep.
GDP Nominal Prices (Billions of Baht) 4,615 4,901 1,219 1,189 1,211 1,282 1,273 1,251 1,258 3,618 3,782
GDP 1988 Prices (Billions of Baht) 2,859 2,985 757 722 729 777 770 735 740 2,208 2,245
Growth Rate of Real GDP 4.2 4.4 5.3 6.4 2.9 3.2 1.8 1.9 1.5 4.8 1.7
(% y.o.y.)
GNP Nominal Prices (Billions of Baht) 4,488 4,831 1,204 1,169 1,193 1,265 1,267 1,239 1,238 3,566 3,744
GNP 1988 Prices (Billions of Baht) 2,803 2,968 754 715 726 773 773 734 734 2,195 2,241
Growth Rate of Real GNP 4.9 5.9 8.3 7.7 4.3 3.5 2.5 2.7 1.1 6.8 2.1
(% y.o.y.)
Table 2 Growth Rate of Real GDP Classified by ISIC (year on year basis)
Unit: Percent
1999 p 2000 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Sep.
Agriculture 2.7 2.7 -2.2 5.7 4.6 3.5 1.7 1.6 -0.9 2.3 0.9
Agriculture, Hunting & Forestry 4.1 3.1 -0.4 4.6 6.5 3.2 0.8 1.9 -1.5 3.1 0.5
Fishing -3.9 0.2 -10.6 12.0 -3.1 5.1 6.7 0.1 1.9 -1.7 3.0
Non-Agriculture 4.4 4.6 6.2 6.4 2.8 3.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 5.1 1.8
Mining & Quarrying 9.0 4.7 13.5 9.0 3.1 -5.2 -7.1 2.1 4.4 8.3 -0.1
Manufacturing 11.5 5.9 8.0 8.1 3.6 4.0 1.4 1.7 0.9 6.5 1.3
Electricity, Gas & Water supply 3.7 10.4 10.9 11.8 5.3 13.8 6.0 5.5 6.4 9.2 5.9
Construction -5.4 -9.7 6.8 -0.3 -14.9 -26.6 -5.5 -10.9 3.2 -4.5 -3.9
Wholesale & Retail Trade, Repairs 3.6 2.9 3.4 4.2 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.6 0.4 3.2 1.8
Hotel & Restaurants 6.1 6.0 7.5 6.8 4.6 5.1 4.9 4.7 3.8 6.3 4.5
Transport, Storage & Communication 6.4 8.1 7.5 5.7 7.8 11.1 3.6 5.0 2.9 7.0 3.8
Financial Intermediation -38.8 -5.6 -6.4 -5.6 -6.1 -3.9 0.3 1.1 2.4 -6.0 1.3
Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities 4.4 4.5 4.9 6.8 1.4 5.2 3.7 2.9 3.3 4.3 3.3
Public Administration & Defence etc. 1.5 1.7 -0.7 9.1 4.4 -5.4 2.6 -3.4 0.0 4.1 -0.2
Education 1.5 3.0 6.3 5.4 2.5 -1.9 -3.9 -3.3 -0.2 4.7 -2.5
Health & Social Work 1.3 9.1 3.7 8.9 8.4 15.2 2.9 3.4 4.1 7.0 3.5
Other Community, Social & Personal Services 12.4 7.3 10.4 7.9 6.8 4.3 3.2 3.9 1.8 8.3 3.0
Private Household with Employed Persons -1.1 -0.3 2.7 4.1 -0.7 -7.1 -2.6 5.3 2.9 2.0 1.7
GDP 4.2 4.4 5.3 6.4 2.9 3.2 1.8 1.9 1.5 4.8 1.7
Table 3 Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Expenditure (year on year basis)
Unit: Percent
1999 p 2000 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Sep.
Private Consumption Expenditure 4.0 4.3 4.8 5.2 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.6 2.8 4.5 3.3
Government Consumption Expenditure 0.9 6.5 14.3 12.0 7.1 -5.3 1.1 -1.3 0.7 10.8 0.2
Gross Capital Formation 7.2 11.8 26.6 18.6 5.6 -1.2 -1.1 -7.9 -2.9 16.9 -4.0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -4.0 5.4 24.9 1.8 -1.7 -0.2 -5.8 5.0 0.5 7.4 -0.3
Private -5.0 14.6 18.6 14.0 16.7 10.1 8.9 4.3 -1.8 16.3 3.9
Public -2.8 -6.1 33.8 -15.2 -17.6 -15.9 -24.0 6.3 3.2 -3.1 -6.0
Change in Inventories 107.9 815.6 45.0 1,514.7 52.6 -10.8 42.8 -92.53 -52.7 407.7 -61.6
Exports of Goods and Services 9.9 17.1 21.9 17.4 20.9 9.7 -2.0 -1.1 -8.0 20.1 -3.9
Goods 12.2 22.1 35.2 19.5 24.9 12.0 -3.5 -1.6 -10.6 26.2 -5.5
Services 2.4 -1.1 -14.5 8.4 4.5 0.9 4.6 1.2 4.7 -1.8 3.5
Imports of Goods and Services 10.6 22.0 44.5 16.5 23.8 9.3 -3.5 -7.0 -11.8 27.0 -7.6
Goods 13.0 25.1 52.2 21.0 24.3 10.6 -6.0 -10.0 -14.4 30.8 -10.2
Services 1.3 8.1 12.2 -2.8 21.2 3.6 10.5 9.1 0.5 9.9 6.2
Gross Domestic Expenditure 5.0 6.2 5.6 10.5 6.0 3.2 2.0 2.8 1.5 7.3 2.1
Table 4 Exports, Imports and Current Accounts (at current market prices)
Unit: Billions of Baht
1999 p 2000 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Sep.
Exports of Goods and Services 2,699 3,290 747 735 875 933 837 839 865 2,357 2,541
Rate of Growth ( % y.o.y.) -0.7 21.9 18.9 17.7 26.6 23.6 12.0 14.2 -1.2 21.2 7.8
Imports of Goods and Services 2,116 2,870 614 656 775 824 777 787 778 2,046 2,341
Rate of Growth ( % y.o.y.) 6.7 35.6 40.5 28.4 40.7 33.7 26.5 19.9 0.3 36.4 14.4
Trade and Services Balance 583 420 133 78 100 109 60 52 87 311 199
Percentage to GDP (%) 12.6 8.6 10.9 6.6 8.3 8.5 4.7 4.2 7.0 8.6 5.3
Factor Income From Abroad , Net -126 -69 -14 -20 -17 -18 -7 -12 -20 -51 -39
Current Transfers From Abroad , Net 13 21 6 6 4 5 6 6 8 16 20
Current Account Balance 470 372 125 64 87 96 59 46 75 276 180
Percentage to GDP (%) 10.2 7.6 10.2 5.4 7.2 7.5 4.6 3.7 6.0 7.6 4.8
Table 5 Growth Rate of GDP Deflator, Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index (1988 = 100)
(year on year basis)
Unit: Percent
1999 p 2000 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Sep.
GDP Implicit Price Deflator -4.3 1.7 -0.4 2.0 2.8 2.4 2.7 3.3 2.4 1.4 2.8
Consumer Price Index 0.3 1.5 0.8 1.6 2.2 1.6 1.4 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.9
Producer Price Index -6.5 3.9 2.0 3.7 5.5 4.5 2.8 4.2 2.6 3.7 3.2
Table 6 Contribution to Growth of Real GDP (1988 = 100)
Unit: Percent
1999 p 2000 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Sep.
Demand Side (Expenditure) 4.9 6.1 5.5 10.2 6.0 3.2 2.0 2.8 1.6 7.2 2.1
Domestic Demand 1.4 4.0 7.8 4.4 2.4 1.5 0.7 2.8 1.7 4.9 1.7
Private Consumption Expenditure 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.5 2.5 1.8
Government Consumption Expenditure 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.8 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.1 1.0 0.0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -0.8 1.0 4.2 0.4 -0.4 0.0 -1.1 1.0 0.1 1.4 0.0
Net Exports 1.3 0.9 -3.0 2.5 2.2 2.0 0.3 2.7 0.5 0.5 1.2
Exports of Goods and Services 5.5 9.9 11.6 9.7 12.6 6.1 -1.2 -0.7 -5.7 11.3 -2.5
Imports of Goods and Services 4.1 9.0 14.6 7.3 10.3 4.1 -1.6 -3.4 -6.2 10.8 -3.7
Change in Inventories 2.2 1.3 0.7 3.3 1.4 -0.2 0.9 -2.7 -0.6 1.8 -0.8
Supply Side (Production) 4.2 4.4 5.3 6.4 2.9 3.2 1.8 1.9 1.5 4.8 1.7
Agriculture 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1
Manufacturing 3.9 2.1 2.8 2.9 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 2.4 0.5
Construction -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Services and Others 0.3 2.3 2.5 2.9 1.8 2.0 1.2 1.4 1.1 2.4 1.2
Note: Total in demand side does not be equal to supply side due to statistical discrepancy.
Table 7 Growth Rate of Major Items of Real GDP and GDE, Quarter on Quarter Basis (1988 = 100)
(Seasonally Adjusted Figures)
Unit: Percent
1999 p 2000 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1 2000 p1 2001 p1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan.-Sep. Jan.-Sep.
Demand Side (Expenditure)
Private Consumption Expenditure 3.9 4.4 -0.9 0.7 2.0 1.5 -0.4 0.6 1.0 4.8 3.4
Government Consumption Expenditure 1.4 7.2 -2.0 4.3 -3.8 -4.0 5.6 0.8 -1.4 12.0 0.3
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -17.5 6.2 13.1 -13.9 1.1 -1.3 8.4 -4.8 -0.9 9.4 -1.2
Supply Side (Production)
Agriculture 3.6 3.0 0.6 3.9 2.3 -3.3 -0.6 3.5 -0.6 2.9 0.8
Manufacturing 11.6 5.9 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.0 -1.9 1.0 0.0 6.6 1.4
Construction -5.9 -9.2 -4.6 -3.3 -10.2 -10.5 21.2 -8.7 4.1 -3.3 -4.9
Services and Others 0.5 4.5 2.0 -0.2 0.6 1.5 0.2 0.5 -0.1 4.7 2.4
Gross Domestic Product 4.3 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 -0.2 0.7 0.0 5.0 1.7
--National Economic and Social Development Board--
-SS-