1. Trend of the world economy in 2002 Recovery of the world economy remains uncertain and subject to various downside risks praticularly the slowdown of US economy, which depends on the timing and effeciveness of fiscal and monetary policies's easing. However, the efectiveness fo such policies depends partly on consumers and inverstors' confidence, and inventory correction of private sector. It is expected thai it will take time for such activities to be acmplished.
Recovery of the US economy will positively affect EU and Asian economies. Thedirect effects will be on exports, tourism, and public conficence. Recovery of Japanese economy from recent recession depends on internal measures particularly on economic restructuring, corporate sector'sx restructuring, and recovery of the US economy.
Moreover, some exporting goods especially in light industries of developing conutries may face fierce competition as China entered WTO last November, which will be a constraint on growth of Thailand and other countries in this region.
It is expected that the world economy in 2002 will grow by 2.5 percent, which is the same as that in 2001. The US economy, Japan ,EU and China are likely to grow at the slower than last year. Newly industrial economices in Asia will expand at the higher rate than last year, assuming effextive implementation of fiscal stimulus and minetary easing. Moreover, contained inflation rate facilitates the implementation of eased monetary and fiscal policies.
Development News Bulletin
2. Trend of the Thai economy in 2002 Although in the second half of 2001 limitation of the global slowdown will be diminished, relief of such slowdown is not expected to substantially facilitate ecports , investment, and tourism. In addition, recovery of eth world economy in the latter half of next yrar is highly uncertain. Supporting factors on economic growth next year will be domestic stmulus package including direct job creation and measures to facilitate operation of private sector such as housing credit, the operation of village fund, lending under people bank, supporting liquidity in Small and Medium enterprises (SMEs), gukliding favorable investment climate, and boosting consumers and investors' confidence.
Hence, the effectiveness of the government's policies to generate income and stimulate demand in the marker will be crucial to support the growth of the economy.
3. Risk factors on economic expansion in 2002 are the recovery of the US and Janpenese economies indicators up until October and November sugges that both countries have not yet bottomed.
4. Supporting factors on economic expansion in 2002 are as follows:
(1) Government budget for stimulating the economy in fiscal year 2002 , village fund for generating job and income, and other specific measures such as tourism promotion measure, people bank, and housing credit.
(2) Stalbe oil price (not exceeding 25 dollar/barrel)because coalition of controlling production in OPEC and outside OPEC in hard to implement and economic activities remain weak.
(3) Inflation rate is contained because of no pressure from demand and supply side.
5. Economic Outlook for 2002 It is expected that in 2002 the Thai Economy will grow by 2 percent. Inflation will be 2.0 percent. Current account will register will be in the reange of 3.9 to 4.0 percent of total labor force.
(1) Outlook by sector is as follows:
* Private consumption will grow by 3.0 percent, slightly higher than that of 2001.
* Privete inverstment will grow by 3.5 percent, lower than 3.0 percent of 2001.
* Government consumption at constant price will grow by 8.0 percent while government investment (both from the government and state-owned enterprises) at the constant price grows by 3.0 percent.
* Export value in US dollar will register 64.3 billion US dollar, increasing by 1.5 percent. Import value in US dollar will register 63.5 billion US dollar, increasing by 3.7 percent.
* The current account will register net surplus of 3.4 billion US dollar, which is equivalent to 2.9 percent of GDP.
--National Economic and Social Development Board Vol.19 No.1: January 2002--
-SS-
Recovery of the US economy will positively affect EU and Asian economies. Thedirect effects will be on exports, tourism, and public conficence. Recovery of Japanese economy from recent recession depends on internal measures particularly on economic restructuring, corporate sector'sx restructuring, and recovery of the US economy.
Moreover, some exporting goods especially in light industries of developing conutries may face fierce competition as China entered WTO last November, which will be a constraint on growth of Thailand and other countries in this region.
It is expected that the world economy in 2002 will grow by 2.5 percent, which is the same as that in 2001. The US economy, Japan ,EU and China are likely to grow at the slower than last year. Newly industrial economices in Asia will expand at the higher rate than last year, assuming effextive implementation of fiscal stimulus and minetary easing. Moreover, contained inflation rate facilitates the implementation of eased monetary and fiscal policies.
Development News Bulletin
2. Trend of the Thai economy in 2002 Although in the second half of 2001 limitation of the global slowdown will be diminished, relief of such slowdown is not expected to substantially facilitate ecports , investment, and tourism. In addition, recovery of eth world economy in the latter half of next yrar is highly uncertain. Supporting factors on economic growth next year will be domestic stmulus package including direct job creation and measures to facilitate operation of private sector such as housing credit, the operation of village fund, lending under people bank, supporting liquidity in Small and Medium enterprises (SMEs), gukliding favorable investment climate, and boosting consumers and investors' confidence.
Hence, the effectiveness of the government's policies to generate income and stimulate demand in the marker will be crucial to support the growth of the economy.
3. Risk factors on economic expansion in 2002 are the recovery of the US and Janpenese economies indicators up until October and November sugges that both countries have not yet bottomed.
4. Supporting factors on economic expansion in 2002 are as follows:
(1) Government budget for stimulating the economy in fiscal year 2002 , village fund for generating job and income, and other specific measures such as tourism promotion measure, people bank, and housing credit.
(2) Stalbe oil price (not exceeding 25 dollar/barrel)because coalition of controlling production in OPEC and outside OPEC in hard to implement and economic activities remain weak.
(3) Inflation rate is contained because of no pressure from demand and supply side.
5. Economic Outlook for 2002 It is expected that in 2002 the Thai Economy will grow by 2 percent. Inflation will be 2.0 percent. Current account will register will be in the reange of 3.9 to 4.0 percent of total labor force.
(1) Outlook by sector is as follows:
* Private consumption will grow by 3.0 percent, slightly higher than that of 2001.
* Privete inverstment will grow by 3.5 percent, lower than 3.0 percent of 2001.
* Government consumption at constant price will grow by 8.0 percent while government investment (both from the government and state-owned enterprises) at the constant price grows by 3.0 percent.
* Export value in US dollar will register 64.3 billion US dollar, increasing by 1.5 percent. Import value in US dollar will register 63.5 billion US dollar, increasing by 3.7 percent.
* The current account will register net surplus of 3.4 billion US dollar, which is equivalent to 2.9 percent of GDP.
--National Economic and Social Development Board Vol.19 No.1: January 2002--
-SS-