GDP decelerated by 6.3 % due to the prolonged effect of Avian Influenza.
GDP growth (%) Expenditure growth (%)
2003 2004 2003 2004
2003 H1 H2 Q1 Q2 H1 2003 H1 H2 Q1 Q2 H1
Agriculture 6.9 7.3 6.5 -2.6 -7.5 -4.8 Private consumption 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.1 5.5 5.8
Non - agriculture 6.7 6.1 7.3 7.7 7.7 7.7 Govt. Expenditure 1.1 -3.8 6.0 8.2 4.3 6.2
GDP 6.8 6.3 7.2 6.6 6.3 6.4 Investment 11.7 8.3 15.0 16.2 12.1 14.1
GDP (Seasonally 3.1 4.0 0.8 0.8 2.3 Exports 6.6 8.1 5.2 6.1 11.1 8.6
Adjusted) Imports 7.5 6.9 8.0 12.9 17.6 15.3
Overall :
GDP in 2Q04 grew by 6.3%, decelerating from 6.6% growth in 1Q04. The seasonally
adjusted GDP increased by 0.8%. The slowdown growth caused by the Avian Influenza and the
rising oil prices.
Production :
The production decelerated owing to 7.5% decrease in the agricultural sector as
a result of the prolonged effect of Avian Influenza and drought. On the contrary,
non-agricultural sector grew by 7.7% at same level as the previous quarter due to robust
growth in transport, storage and communication; and hotels and restaurants.
- Agriculture dropped by 7.5% due to 7.4% and 19.3% contraction of crops and livestock
respectively. The decreased major crops were second crop paddy, cassava, sugarcane and maize;
and livestock dropped owing to the Avian Influenza in the previous quarter.
- Manufacturing decelerated by 7.5%, compared to 10.3% in 1Q04 mainly due to slowdown
production in raw meterial and capital goods industries, while light industries contracted
as a result of a decrease in food and beverage industries.
- Construction grew by 1.6% owing to deceleration of private construction at 15.6%
as a result of the slowdown of residential construction in line with an increase in construction
meterial prices. In addition, public construction decreased by 5.4%.
- Transport and communication rose by 10.5%, higher than 5.5% in 1Q04. This was mainly
from 39.2% and 10.4% growth of air transportation and telecommunication.
- Hotel and restaurant significantly expanded by 29.7%, compared to 0.3% in 1Q04.
This was a result of the 74.8% growth of hotel services in accordance with a large number of
foreign tourists which increased by 88.1% compared to the same period of previous year that
affected by SARS.
- Financial intermediation increased by 16.3%, higher than 11.7% in 1Q04 owing to
the better performance of commercial banks and Government Saving Bank in line with a continual
expansion of loans.
Demand :
Household consumption, government consumption and investment increased at a slower pace.
While surplus in trade and services balance narrowed.
- Domestic demand : decelerated both household consumption, government consumption,
and investments.
(1) Consumption : Household consumption expenditure decelerated by 5.5%, compared
to 6.1% in 1Q04, despite increase in various stimultors such as increased government official's
salaries, higher farm income and higher consumer loans from commercial banks. Furthermore,
avian flu epidemic was eased. The rising oil prices was the key factor to delay their spending,
especially on personal cars. Government consumption sharply slowed down from 8.2% growth in 1Q04
to 4.3% in 2Q04.
(2) Investment expanded by 12.1%, compared to 16.2% in 1Q04. The private investment
decelerated by 16.2%, lower than 17.8% in 1Q04, slowed down both in construction and equipment.
Meanwhile, government investment grew only by 0.3%, compared to 10.8% growth in 1Q04,
construction shrank by 6.6% due to central and local authorities construction dropped by 13.1%.
- Net exports : Net exports of goods and services at constant prices continually
contracted by 13.2% as a result of higher import of goods and services.
(1) Exports grew by 11.1%, higher than 1Q04 due mainly to an increase in the major
export markets, particularly in ASIAN, EU and Japan that the economies were in the upturn
direction.
(2) Imports expanded by 17.6%, higher than 12.9% in 1Q04 as a result of higher
imports of principal products such as crude oil, raw material, integrated circuils and
industrial machineries.
Growth Rate of Real GDP (year on year basis)
Production Side
Unit : %
Weight 2002 2003
2002 2003
2003 Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 H2 Q1 Q2 H1
Agriculture 10.2 3.0 6.9 10.0 4.2 7.3 6.6 6.5 6.5 -2.6 -7.5 -4.8
Non-agriculture 89.8 5.7 6.7 6.3 6.0 6.1 6.6 8.0 7.3 7.7 7.7 7.7
- Manufacturing 37.9 6.8 10.3 10.3 11.1 10.7 8.9 10.9 9.9 10.3 7.5 8.9
- Electricity, Gas &
Water Supply 3.3 6.0 4.7 4.6 7.4 6.1 4.7 2.0 3.3 3.3 5.4 4.4
- Construction 2.4 5.7 3.4 -5.2 0.7 -2.2 6.1 13.6 9.0 13.4 4.6 8.7
- Wholesale & Retail Trade 14.3 1.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.1 3.4
- Transportation, Storage &
Communications 10.0 6.5 4.6 6.8 1.3 4.1 5.3 4.8 5.0 5.5 10.5 7.9
- Hotels & Restaurants 3.5 4.7 -3.5 -1.8 -13.0 -7.1 -1.3 1.3 0.1 0.3 29.7 13.3
- Financial Intermediation 3.0 9.0 12.4 9.3 10.1 9.7 12.7 17.8 15.0 11.7 16.3 14.1
- Others 15.4 6.0 5.1 3.0 3.7 3.4 5.7 8.0 6.9 7.6 6.1 6.9
GDP 100.0 5.4 6.8 6.7 5.8 6.3 6.6 7.8 7.2 6.6 6.3 6.4
Expenditure Side
Unit : %
Weight 2002 2003
2002 2003
2003 Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 H2 Q1 Q2 H1
Private Consumption Expenditure 54.3 4.9 6.3 6.8 5.7 6.2 5.4 7.1 6.3 6.1 5.5 5.8
- Exclude Tourists Expenditure 52.4 4.8 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 5.5 7.1 6.3 5.9 5.9 5.9
Government Consumption Expenditure 8.5 2.5 1.1 -10.0 2.8 -3.8 3.2 9.5 6.0 8.2 4.3 6.2
Investment 20.8 6.5 11.7 7.5 9.1 8.3 10.8 19.8 15.0 16.2 12.1 14.1
- Private 15.2 13.2 17.9 19.8 16.8 18.3 16.5 18.5 17.6 17.8 16.2 17.0
- Public 5.6 -5.8 -2.3 -20.2 -7.9 -13.8 1.7 24.3 9.2 10.8 0.3 5.0
Exports 64.5 12.1 6.6 12.1 4.3 8.1 3.7 6.6 5.2 6.1 11.1 8.6
- Goods 53.0 12.2 8.8 14.6 9.5 12.0 4.3 7.8 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.4
- Services 11.5 11.7 -2.8 2.9 -19.1 -7.4 1.0 1.7 1.4 4.8 39.9 19.1
Less : Imports 50.1 13.6 7.5 12.4 2.0 6.9 3.7 12.5 8.0 12.9 17.6 15.3
- Goods 42.4 13.1 8.8 13.2 3.3 8.0 4.1 15.3 9.6 14.9 20.0 17.5
- Services 7.7 16.0 0.7 8.6 -4.9 1.6 1.3 -1.4 -0.1 2.5 4.2 3.3
GDP 100.0 5.4 6.8 6.7 5.8 6.3 6.6 7.8 7.2 6.6 6.3 6.4
--National Economic and Social Development Board--
-PM-
GDP growth (%) Expenditure growth (%)
2003 2004 2003 2004
2003 H1 H2 Q1 Q2 H1 2003 H1 H2 Q1 Q2 H1
Agriculture 6.9 7.3 6.5 -2.6 -7.5 -4.8 Private consumption 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.1 5.5 5.8
Non - agriculture 6.7 6.1 7.3 7.7 7.7 7.7 Govt. Expenditure 1.1 -3.8 6.0 8.2 4.3 6.2
GDP 6.8 6.3 7.2 6.6 6.3 6.4 Investment 11.7 8.3 15.0 16.2 12.1 14.1
GDP (Seasonally 3.1 4.0 0.8 0.8 2.3 Exports 6.6 8.1 5.2 6.1 11.1 8.6
Adjusted) Imports 7.5 6.9 8.0 12.9 17.6 15.3
Overall :
GDP in 2Q04 grew by 6.3%, decelerating from 6.6% growth in 1Q04. The seasonally
adjusted GDP increased by 0.8%. The slowdown growth caused by the Avian Influenza and the
rising oil prices.
Production :
The production decelerated owing to 7.5% decrease in the agricultural sector as
a result of the prolonged effect of Avian Influenza and drought. On the contrary,
non-agricultural sector grew by 7.7% at same level as the previous quarter due to robust
growth in transport, storage and communication; and hotels and restaurants.
- Agriculture dropped by 7.5% due to 7.4% and 19.3% contraction of crops and livestock
respectively. The decreased major crops were second crop paddy, cassava, sugarcane and maize;
and livestock dropped owing to the Avian Influenza in the previous quarter.
- Manufacturing decelerated by 7.5%, compared to 10.3% in 1Q04 mainly due to slowdown
production in raw meterial and capital goods industries, while light industries contracted
as a result of a decrease in food and beverage industries.
- Construction grew by 1.6% owing to deceleration of private construction at 15.6%
as a result of the slowdown of residential construction in line with an increase in construction
meterial prices. In addition, public construction decreased by 5.4%.
- Transport and communication rose by 10.5%, higher than 5.5% in 1Q04. This was mainly
from 39.2% and 10.4% growth of air transportation and telecommunication.
- Hotel and restaurant significantly expanded by 29.7%, compared to 0.3% in 1Q04.
This was a result of the 74.8% growth of hotel services in accordance with a large number of
foreign tourists which increased by 88.1% compared to the same period of previous year that
affected by SARS.
- Financial intermediation increased by 16.3%, higher than 11.7% in 1Q04 owing to
the better performance of commercial banks and Government Saving Bank in line with a continual
expansion of loans.
Demand :
Household consumption, government consumption and investment increased at a slower pace.
While surplus in trade and services balance narrowed.
- Domestic demand : decelerated both household consumption, government consumption,
and investments.
(1) Consumption : Household consumption expenditure decelerated by 5.5%, compared
to 6.1% in 1Q04, despite increase in various stimultors such as increased government official's
salaries, higher farm income and higher consumer loans from commercial banks. Furthermore,
avian flu epidemic was eased. The rising oil prices was the key factor to delay their spending,
especially on personal cars. Government consumption sharply slowed down from 8.2% growth in 1Q04
to 4.3% in 2Q04.
(2) Investment expanded by 12.1%, compared to 16.2% in 1Q04. The private investment
decelerated by 16.2%, lower than 17.8% in 1Q04, slowed down both in construction and equipment.
Meanwhile, government investment grew only by 0.3%, compared to 10.8% growth in 1Q04,
construction shrank by 6.6% due to central and local authorities construction dropped by 13.1%.
- Net exports : Net exports of goods and services at constant prices continually
contracted by 13.2% as a result of higher import of goods and services.
(1) Exports grew by 11.1%, higher than 1Q04 due mainly to an increase in the major
export markets, particularly in ASIAN, EU and Japan that the economies were in the upturn
direction.
(2) Imports expanded by 17.6%, higher than 12.9% in 1Q04 as a result of higher
imports of principal products such as crude oil, raw material, integrated circuils and
industrial machineries.
Growth Rate of Real GDP (year on year basis)
Production Side
Unit : %
Weight 2002 2003
2002 2003
2003 Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 H2 Q1 Q2 H1
Agriculture 10.2 3.0 6.9 10.0 4.2 7.3 6.6 6.5 6.5 -2.6 -7.5 -4.8
Non-agriculture 89.8 5.7 6.7 6.3 6.0 6.1 6.6 8.0 7.3 7.7 7.7 7.7
- Manufacturing 37.9 6.8 10.3 10.3 11.1 10.7 8.9 10.9 9.9 10.3 7.5 8.9
- Electricity, Gas &
Water Supply 3.3 6.0 4.7 4.6 7.4 6.1 4.7 2.0 3.3 3.3 5.4 4.4
- Construction 2.4 5.7 3.4 -5.2 0.7 -2.2 6.1 13.6 9.0 13.4 4.6 8.7
- Wholesale & Retail Trade 14.3 1.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.1 3.4
- Transportation, Storage &
Communications 10.0 6.5 4.6 6.8 1.3 4.1 5.3 4.8 5.0 5.5 10.5 7.9
- Hotels & Restaurants 3.5 4.7 -3.5 -1.8 -13.0 -7.1 -1.3 1.3 0.1 0.3 29.7 13.3
- Financial Intermediation 3.0 9.0 12.4 9.3 10.1 9.7 12.7 17.8 15.0 11.7 16.3 14.1
- Others 15.4 6.0 5.1 3.0 3.7 3.4 5.7 8.0 6.9 7.6 6.1 6.9
GDP 100.0 5.4 6.8 6.7 5.8 6.3 6.6 7.8 7.2 6.6 6.3 6.4
Expenditure Side
Unit : %
Weight 2002 2003
2002 2003
2003 Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 H2 Q1 Q2 H1
Private Consumption Expenditure 54.3 4.9 6.3 6.8 5.7 6.2 5.4 7.1 6.3 6.1 5.5 5.8
- Exclude Tourists Expenditure 52.4 4.8 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 5.5 7.1 6.3 5.9 5.9 5.9
Government Consumption Expenditure 8.5 2.5 1.1 -10.0 2.8 -3.8 3.2 9.5 6.0 8.2 4.3 6.2
Investment 20.8 6.5 11.7 7.5 9.1 8.3 10.8 19.8 15.0 16.2 12.1 14.1
- Private 15.2 13.2 17.9 19.8 16.8 18.3 16.5 18.5 17.6 17.8 16.2 17.0
- Public 5.6 -5.8 -2.3 -20.2 -7.9 -13.8 1.7 24.3 9.2 10.8 0.3 5.0
Exports 64.5 12.1 6.6 12.1 4.3 8.1 3.7 6.6 5.2 6.1 11.1 8.6
- Goods 53.0 12.2 8.8 14.6 9.5 12.0 4.3 7.8 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.4
- Services 11.5 11.7 -2.8 2.9 -19.1 -7.4 1.0 1.7 1.4 4.8 39.9 19.1
Less : Imports 50.1 13.6 7.5 12.4 2.0 6.9 3.7 12.5 8.0 12.9 17.6 15.3
- Goods 42.4 13.1 8.8 13.2 3.3 8.0 4.1 15.3 9.6 14.9 20.0 17.5
- Services 7.7 16.0 0.7 8.6 -4.9 1.6 1.3 -1.4 -0.1 2.5 4.2 3.3
GDP 100.0 5.4 6.8 6.7 5.8 6.3 6.6 7.8 7.2 6.6 6.3 6.4
--National Economic and Social Development Board--
-PM-