GDP 4Q04 increased by 5.1%, slowed down compared to the three previous
quarters due to drought, the return of Avian Flu, and the continual rising oil
prices. Annual GDP growth grew by 6.1%.
GDP growth (%)
2004
2003 2004
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Agriculture 8.7 -4.4 -2.0 -5.8 -5.2 -4.9
Non - agriculture 6.7 7.2 7.7 7.7 7.1 6.4
GDP 6.9 6.1 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.1
GDP (Seasonally) 6.9 6.1 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.8
* Overall : GDP in 4Q04 increased by 5.1%, decelerating from 6.1% growth in 3Q04.
The seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 1.8%. The slowdown growth caused by the
drought, the return of Avian Flu and the continual rising oil prices. Thus, annual
GDP growth grew by 6.1%, decelerating from 6.9% in previous year.
* Production : The production growth decelerated owing to 4.9% drop in agricultural
sector as a result of the drought and the return of Avian Influenza. Non-
agricultural sector also decelerated by 6.4% due to slowdown in
manufacturing, transport and communication, and hotel and restaurants. However,
construction, and financial intermediation still grew up with high growth rates.
- Agriculture dropped by 4.9% due to the contraction in crops and
livestock by 6.9% and 9.8% respectively. The decrease in crops resulted from
the drought. Moreover, the contraction in livestock was affected by the return of
the Avian Flu.
- Manufacturing expanded by 7.4%, lower than 8.4% in 3Q04 mainly due to
decelerated production in light and capital goods and high technology industries,
especially food and beverage, and electrical machinery and apparatus. However, raw
material industries growth, especially petroleum refinery and industries related to
construction such as cement and metal, increased favorably.
- Construction grew markedly by 22.2% from 9.4% in 3Q04 owing to
higher expansion of public construction by 35.5%, particularly from the
acceleration in construction of state enterprises. However, private construction
continued to decelerate, but standing at high growth, as a result of an increase of
construction material prices.
- ransport and communication rose by 6.5%, lower than 8.4% in 3Q04. This was
mainly from decelerating in growth of telecommunication services by 6.4% compared to
12.0% in 3Q04. However, transport services rose by 6.6%.
- Hotel and restaurant rose by 6.8%, lower than 16.3% in 3Q04. This
was a result of the decelerated growth of restaurant services by 7.7%
compared to 16.4% in 3Q04 in accordance with slowdown in domestic
demand. Hotel services rose merely by 5.0% due to an increase in a number of
foreign tourists by 4.6% compared with 14.0% in 3Q04.
- Financial intermediation increased by 15.7%, higher than 11.6% in
3Q04 owing to the better performance of commercial banks and life insurance
companies.
* Demand : Household consumption grew at a slower rate while government
consumption expenditure and investment continued to rise. Trade and services
balance at current market prices marked a surplus of Baht 1.27 trillion.
- Domestic demand slowed down due to household consumption, although government
expenditure and investment expanded.
(1) Consumption : household consumption increased at 5.1%; relatively lower
than 5.6% of 3Q04 due to a combined effect of the Avian Influenza, the unrest
in the southern provinces, and the global trend of rising interest
rates. Government expenditure, on the other hand, accelerated at 5.2% as a result
of 22.4% rise in net purchase of goods and services while compensation of employees
fell by 1.7%.
(2) Investment registered a 16.2% growth--a faster pace than 12.0% of 3Q04.
Public sector played a main contributor due to massive injection in state
enterprises construction in Suvarnnabhumi Airport and Baan Ua Athorn Project. In
contrast, private investment slowed at 12.7% by edging down both in constructions,
and machinery and equipments.
- Net exports of goods and services at constant prices swung up by 10.3% from
its fall by 6.2% in the previous quarter as exports of goods and services grew at a
higher rate than the imports.
(1) Exports recorded the highest current market prices value in history at
Baht 1.24 trillion with an increase in constant prices value by 5.1% in
response to higher demand in major markets. The growth exported products
included automobiles and parts, electrical appliances, plastic products, and
computers and parts. Income from services decelerated to 1.5%.
(2) Imports of goods and services posted a bit slower growth in the value at
current market prices. The import value at constant prices recorded grew by 3.6%
owing to a slowdown in import of consumer goods as well as capital goods,
particularly electrical machinery, integrated circuits, and computer parts.
Growth Rate of Real GDP (year on year basis)
Production Side
%
2003 2004
Weight 2002 2003 2004
2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Agriculture 9.2 1.0 8.7 -4.4 10.1 9.9 9.2 6.5 -2.0 -5.8 -5.2 -4.9
Non-agriculture 90.8 5.8 6.7 7.2 6.2 6.0 6.6 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.1 6.4
Manufacturing 38.7 6.9 10.4 8.3 10.2 11.2 9.3 10.8 10.2 7.3 8.4 7.4
Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 3.3 6.0 4.6 5.7 4.3 7.0 4.4 2.8 3.7 5.4 8.0 5.6
Construction 2.6 5.4 3.3 12.7 -5.5 0.1 6.4 13.3 14.3 7.3 9.4 22.2
Wholesale & Retail Trade 13.9 1.9 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 2.7 2.8 2.9
Transportation, Storage & 10.1 6.8 3.7 7.7 6.0 0.6 4.3 4.0 5.9 10.4 8.4 6.5
Communications
Hotels & Restaurants 3.7 4.5 -3.7 12.4 -2.5 -13.1 -1.3 1.0 1.8 28.4 16.3 6.8
Financial Intermediation 3.5 12.2 16.2 14.2 14.3 15.0 15.2 20.2 12.9 16.7 11.6 15.7
Others 15.1 5.9 4.5 5.0 2.6 2.8 5.3 7.3 7.3 6.5 3.3 3.2
GDP 100.0 5.3 6.9 6.1 6.6 6.3 6.8 7.7 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.1
Expenditure Side
%
2003 2004
Weight 2002 2003 2004
2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Private Consumption Expenditure 54.5 5.3 6.4 5.6 6.7 5.9 5.6 7.5 6.2 5.7 5.6 5.1
- Exclude Tourists Expenditure 52.9 5.2 7.2 5.5 7.1 7.5 6.0 8.1 5.8 5.4 6.1 4.8
Government Consumption Expenditure 8.4 1.8 2.0 4.1 -8.1 4.6 4.2 7.9 7.0 4.9 0.3 5.2
Investment 22.4 6.5 11.9 14.4 7.7 9.0 10.9 20.3 16.7 12.9 12.0 16.2
- Private 16.5 13.4 17.5 15.3 18.3 16.4 15.8 19.4 18.6 16.1 14.2 12.7
- Public 6.0 -6.3 -0.8 11.7 -16.6 -7.6 3.3 23.7 10.3 3.8 8.1 28.2
Exports 65.7 12.0 7.0 7.8 12.6 4.7 4.2 7.1 6.2 11.8 8.4 5.1
- Goods 53.6 12.0 9.5 7.0 14.9 10.1 5.1 8.6 6.3 6.7 9.2 5.9
- Services 12.1 11.9 -2.9 11.2 4.1 -19.5 0.2 1.4 5.8 43.3 4.5 1.5
Less : Imports 52.9 13.7 7.7 12.1 12.6 1.5 3.8 13.4 13.5 20.1 12.5 3.6
- Goods 45.2 13.3 9.7 12.1 14.2 3.8 4.6 17.1 14.3 19.8 13.3 2.3
- Services 7.8 15.6 -3.0 12.3 4.5 -10.6 -0.5 -4.8 9.5 21.8 7.4 11.3
GDP 100.0 5.3 6.9 6.1 6.6 6.3 6.8 7.7 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.1
--National Economic and Social Development Board--
-PM-
quarters due to drought, the return of Avian Flu, and the continual rising oil
prices. Annual GDP growth grew by 6.1%.
GDP growth (%)
2004
2003 2004
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Agriculture 8.7 -4.4 -2.0 -5.8 -5.2 -4.9
Non - agriculture 6.7 7.2 7.7 7.7 7.1 6.4
GDP 6.9 6.1 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.1
GDP (Seasonally) 6.9 6.1 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.8
* Overall : GDP in 4Q04 increased by 5.1%, decelerating from 6.1% growth in 3Q04.
The seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 1.8%. The slowdown growth caused by the
drought, the return of Avian Flu and the continual rising oil prices. Thus, annual
GDP growth grew by 6.1%, decelerating from 6.9% in previous year.
* Production : The production growth decelerated owing to 4.9% drop in agricultural
sector as a result of the drought and the return of Avian Influenza. Non-
agricultural sector also decelerated by 6.4% due to slowdown in
manufacturing, transport and communication, and hotel and restaurants. However,
construction, and financial intermediation still grew up with high growth rates.
- Agriculture dropped by 4.9% due to the contraction in crops and
livestock by 6.9% and 9.8% respectively. The decrease in crops resulted from
the drought. Moreover, the contraction in livestock was affected by the return of
the Avian Flu.
- Manufacturing expanded by 7.4%, lower than 8.4% in 3Q04 mainly due to
decelerated production in light and capital goods and high technology industries,
especially food and beverage, and electrical machinery and apparatus. However, raw
material industries growth, especially petroleum refinery and industries related to
construction such as cement and metal, increased favorably.
- Construction grew markedly by 22.2% from 9.4% in 3Q04 owing to
higher expansion of public construction by 35.5%, particularly from the
acceleration in construction of state enterprises. However, private construction
continued to decelerate, but standing at high growth, as a result of an increase of
construction material prices.
- ransport and communication rose by 6.5%, lower than 8.4% in 3Q04. This was
mainly from decelerating in growth of telecommunication services by 6.4% compared to
12.0% in 3Q04. However, transport services rose by 6.6%.
- Hotel and restaurant rose by 6.8%, lower than 16.3% in 3Q04. This
was a result of the decelerated growth of restaurant services by 7.7%
compared to 16.4% in 3Q04 in accordance with slowdown in domestic
demand. Hotel services rose merely by 5.0% due to an increase in a number of
foreign tourists by 4.6% compared with 14.0% in 3Q04.
- Financial intermediation increased by 15.7%, higher than 11.6% in
3Q04 owing to the better performance of commercial banks and life insurance
companies.
* Demand : Household consumption grew at a slower rate while government
consumption expenditure and investment continued to rise. Trade and services
balance at current market prices marked a surplus of Baht 1.27 trillion.
- Domestic demand slowed down due to household consumption, although government
expenditure and investment expanded.
(1) Consumption : household consumption increased at 5.1%; relatively lower
than 5.6% of 3Q04 due to a combined effect of the Avian Influenza, the unrest
in the southern provinces, and the global trend of rising interest
rates. Government expenditure, on the other hand, accelerated at 5.2% as a result
of 22.4% rise in net purchase of goods and services while compensation of employees
fell by 1.7%.
(2) Investment registered a 16.2% growth--a faster pace than 12.0% of 3Q04.
Public sector played a main contributor due to massive injection in state
enterprises construction in Suvarnnabhumi Airport and Baan Ua Athorn Project. In
contrast, private investment slowed at 12.7% by edging down both in constructions,
and machinery and equipments.
- Net exports of goods and services at constant prices swung up by 10.3% from
its fall by 6.2% in the previous quarter as exports of goods and services grew at a
higher rate than the imports.
(1) Exports recorded the highest current market prices value in history at
Baht 1.24 trillion with an increase in constant prices value by 5.1% in
response to higher demand in major markets. The growth exported products
included automobiles and parts, electrical appliances, plastic products, and
computers and parts. Income from services decelerated to 1.5%.
(2) Imports of goods and services posted a bit slower growth in the value at
current market prices. The import value at constant prices recorded grew by 3.6%
owing to a slowdown in import of consumer goods as well as capital goods,
particularly electrical machinery, integrated circuits, and computer parts.
Growth Rate of Real GDP (year on year basis)
Production Side
%
2003 2004
Weight 2002 2003 2004
2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Agriculture 9.2 1.0 8.7 -4.4 10.1 9.9 9.2 6.5 -2.0 -5.8 -5.2 -4.9
Non-agriculture 90.8 5.8 6.7 7.2 6.2 6.0 6.6 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.1 6.4
Manufacturing 38.7 6.9 10.4 8.3 10.2 11.2 9.3 10.8 10.2 7.3 8.4 7.4
Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 3.3 6.0 4.6 5.7 4.3 7.0 4.4 2.8 3.7 5.4 8.0 5.6
Construction 2.6 5.4 3.3 12.7 -5.5 0.1 6.4 13.3 14.3 7.3 9.4 22.2
Wholesale & Retail Trade 13.9 1.9 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 2.7 2.8 2.9
Transportation, Storage & 10.1 6.8 3.7 7.7 6.0 0.6 4.3 4.0 5.9 10.4 8.4 6.5
Communications
Hotels & Restaurants 3.7 4.5 -3.7 12.4 -2.5 -13.1 -1.3 1.0 1.8 28.4 16.3 6.8
Financial Intermediation 3.5 12.2 16.2 14.2 14.3 15.0 15.2 20.2 12.9 16.7 11.6 15.7
Others 15.1 5.9 4.5 5.0 2.6 2.8 5.3 7.3 7.3 6.5 3.3 3.2
GDP 100.0 5.3 6.9 6.1 6.6 6.3 6.8 7.7 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.1
Expenditure Side
%
2003 2004
Weight 2002 2003 2004
2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Private Consumption Expenditure 54.5 5.3 6.4 5.6 6.7 5.9 5.6 7.5 6.2 5.7 5.6 5.1
- Exclude Tourists Expenditure 52.9 5.2 7.2 5.5 7.1 7.5 6.0 8.1 5.8 5.4 6.1 4.8
Government Consumption Expenditure 8.4 1.8 2.0 4.1 -8.1 4.6 4.2 7.9 7.0 4.9 0.3 5.2
Investment 22.4 6.5 11.9 14.4 7.7 9.0 10.9 20.3 16.7 12.9 12.0 16.2
- Private 16.5 13.4 17.5 15.3 18.3 16.4 15.8 19.4 18.6 16.1 14.2 12.7
- Public 6.0 -6.3 -0.8 11.7 -16.6 -7.6 3.3 23.7 10.3 3.8 8.1 28.2
Exports 65.7 12.0 7.0 7.8 12.6 4.7 4.2 7.1 6.2 11.8 8.4 5.1
- Goods 53.6 12.0 9.5 7.0 14.9 10.1 5.1 8.6 6.3 6.7 9.2 5.9
- Services 12.1 11.9 -2.9 11.2 4.1 -19.5 0.2 1.4 5.8 43.3 4.5 1.5
Less : Imports 52.9 13.7 7.7 12.1 12.6 1.5 3.8 13.4 13.5 20.1 12.5 3.6
- Goods 45.2 13.3 9.7 12.1 14.2 3.8 4.6 17.1 14.3 19.8 13.3 2.3
- Services 7.8 15.6 -3.0 12.3 4.5 -10.6 -0.5 -4.8 9.5 21.8 7.4 11.3
GDP 100.0 5.3 6.9 6.1 6.6 6.3 6.8 7.7 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.1
--National Economic and Social Development Board--
-PM-