GDP QUARTERLY REPORT
HIGHLIGHT OF Q1/2005
GDP GROWTH BY SECTOR (YoY)
2004E 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05
Agriculture -3.9 -2.0 -5.8 -5.2 -3.3 -8.2
Non-agriculture 7.2 7.7 7.7 7.1 6.5 4.5
GDP 6.1 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.3 3.3
GDP recorded a slow growth of 3.3% resulting from weaken domestic consumption and
net exports, combined with drought, oil price surge and the Tsunami disaster.
* GDP in Q1 grew at 3.3% lower than 5.3% in 4Q04, underpinned by severe
drought, creeping up of oil price, and the catastrophic Tsunami disaster.
* Prolonged drought had caused growth in agricultural sector to remain
negative for 5 consecutive quarters, with this period posting a fall of 8.2%.
Production of major crops i.e. paddy, sugarcane and cassava contracted while
livestock production rebounded.
* Non-agricultural sector expanded only by 4.5% in response to a slowdown
in major production sectors, particularly manufacturing and transportation. Hotels
and restaurants shrunk while financial intermediation kept on expanding.
Trade and services balance, in nominal term, posted a highest deficit since the
Asian Crisis while household consumption and capital formation showed slow growth.
* Trade balance at current market prices registered a highest deficit
since the Asian Financial Crisis of Baht 124.5 billion as import growth outweighed
export. On the other hand, services balance remained in surplus at Baht 70.4
billion.
* Household consumption continued with the slow trend of 4.5% brought
about by continuous hikes in oil prices, drought, and Tsunami disaster.
* Investment grew by 14.8%, dampen from a growth of 16.2% in the previous
quarter. Investment by public sector accelerated from 28.2% in 4Q04 to 29.2% while
private sector slowed from 12.7% to 10.6%.
GDP Q1/05
GDP 1Q05 increased by 3.3%, slowed down in result of drought, creeping up
oil prices and Tsunami.
GDP growth %
2004 2004 2005
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Agriculture -3.9 -2.0 -5.8 -5.2 -3.3 -8.2
Non-agriculture 7.2 7.7 7.7 7.1 6.5 4.5
GDP 6.1 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.3 3.3
GDP (Seasonally Adjusted) 6.1 1.4 0.8 1.7 1.5 -0.6
* Overall : GDP in 1Q05 grew at 3.3% slower than 5.3% of the previous
quarter. After seasonal adjustment, GDP posted a decline rate of 0.6%. While
domestic demand kept on expanding in both consumption and investment, net external
demand was in deficit.
* Production : The production registered a slow growth of 3.3% compared
to the previous quarter owing to 8.2% drop in agricultural sector. Non-agricultural
sector, on the other hand, rose by 4.5%, slightly lower than 6.5% in 4Q04.
- Agriculture shrunk by 8.2% due to the contraction in crops by
16.7% in response to prolonged drought causing both paddy and sugarcane production
to slump. Livestock swung back into positive growth of 24.0% as production of
chicken and eggs picked up. Fishery decelerated by 8.4 % due to lower export of
shrimp.
- Manufacturing expanded by 3.6%, a slowdown in all industries
in line with subdue domestic demand and falling agricultural raw materials.
Moreover, large industries in petrochemical and steel industries also shut down in
this quarter for maintenance.
- Construction grew moderately by 13.3% as private construction
expanded by 10.3%, slightly lower than the previous quarter while growth of public
construction by 35.5% in 4Q04 slowed down to 16.0% in this period.
- Transport and communication rose by 4.9% owing to an expansion
of telecommunication services by 14.9%. However, transport services set back by
0.3% following contraction of goods and number of tourists, air transportation
dropped by 2.3 %.
- Hotel and restaurant turned downward by 2.0% resulting from
7.4% fall in hotel services in line with lower tourists arrivals particularly after
the Tsunami disaster. Restaurants grew slightly by 0.9% as domestic consumption
continued to slow.
- Financial intermediation remained robust with 17.2% growth rate
as commercial banks improved their performances in both net interest receipts and
income from fees.
* Demand : While domestic demand expanded, net export weaken.
- Domestic demand grew both in household consumption, government
consumption and investment.
(1) Consumption: Government consumption escaladed by 16.0% while
private consumption expenditure grew by 4.5% compared with 5.4% in previous quarter.
Major factor to such slowdown was the Tsunami disaster, leading to smaller tourists
and cancellation of New Year celebrations. In addition, expenditure on durable goods
e.g. automobiles, furniture, and large electrical appliances dampen by 0.2%,
especially passenger cars that decreased by 5.6 % as a result of continuous hovering
oil prices. Consumers, then reacted by switching to diesel cars as diesel prices
were lower.
(2) Investment registered a 14.8% growth with private investment
expanding by 10.6%, compared with 12.7% in the previous quarter, a slow in both
construction and equipments. Public sector increased by 29.2%.
- Net exports posted a slump in net export of goods and services
at constant prices of 47.3%.
(1) Exports of goods and services at constant prices fell by
0.1% due to a slow of the world electronic markets, together with a drop in
agricultural products caused by drought. At the same time, income from tourism grew
at a lower rate after the Tsunami disaster.
(2) Imports of goods and services at constant prices posted a
strong growth from 3.9% in 4Q04 to 10.8%. The import value of goods at constant
prices rose by 11.7% from imports of intermediate goods, raw materials and capital
goods, particularly gasoline, steels, machineries and non--monetary gold. For
expenditures on services increased by 6.1% with major contributor being expenditure
of residents abroad.
Growth Rate of Real GDP (year on year basis)
Production Side
Weight 2003 2004 2005
2003 2004
2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Agriculture 9.2 8.7 -3.9 10.1 9.9 9.2 6.5 -2.0 -5.8 -5.2 -3.3 -8.2
Non-agriculture 90.8 6.7 7.2 6.2 6.0 6.6 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.1 6.5 4.5
Manufacturing 38.7 10.4 8.4 10.2 11.2 9.3 10.8 10.2 7.3 8.4 7.6 3.6
Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 3.3 4.6 5.5 4.3 7.0 4.4 2.8 3.7 5.4 8.0 4.9 8.5
Construction 2.6 3.3 12.7 -5.5 0.1 6.4 13.3 14.3 7.3 9.4 22.2 13.3
Wholesale & Retail Trade 13.9 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8
Transportation, Storage & Communications 10.1 3.7 7.7 6.0 0.6 4.3 4.0 5.9 10.4 8.4 6.5 4.9
Hotels & Restaurants 3.6 -3.7 12.2 -2.5 -13.1 -1.3 1.0 1.8 28.4 16.3 6.1 -2.0
Financial Intermediation 3.5 16.2 14.2 14.3 15.0 15.2 20.2 12.9 16.7 11.6 15.7 17.2
Others 15.1 4.5 5.0 2.6 2.8 5.3 7.3 7.3 6.5 3.3 3.2 5.2
GDP 100.0 6.9 6.1 6.6 6.3 6.8 7.7 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.3 3.3
Expenditure Side
Weight
2003 2004 2005
2003 2004
2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Private Consumption Expenditure 54.5 6.4 5.7 6.7 5.9 5.6 7.5 6.2 5.7 5.6 5.4 4.5
- Exclude Tourists Expenditure 52.9 7.2 5.6 7.1 7.5 6.0 8.1 5.8 5.4 6.1 5.1 3.6
Government Consumption Expenditure 8.4 2.0 4.1 -8.1 4.6 4.2 7.9 7.0 4.9 0.3 5.2 16.0
Investment 22.4 11.9 14.4 7.7 9.0 10.9 20.3 16.7 12.9 12.0 16.2 14.8
- Private 16.5 17.5 15.3 18.3 16.4 15.8 19.4 18.6 16.1 14.2 12.7 10.6
- Public 6.0 -0.8 11.7 -16.6 -7.6 3.3 23.7 10.3 3.8 8.1 28.2 29.2
Exports 65.6 7.0 7.8 12.6 4.7 4.2 7.1 6.2 11.8 8.4 5.2 -0.1
- Goods 53.6 9.5 7.0 14.9 10.1 5.1 8.6 6.3 6.7 9.2 5.9 -0.5
- Services 12.1 -2.9 11.4 4.1 -19.5 0.2 1.4 5.8 43.3 4.5 2.1 1.3
Less : Imports 52.9 7.7 12.2 12.6 1.5 3.8 13.4 13.5 20.1 12.5 3.9 10.8
- Goods 45.1 9.7 12.1 14.2 3.8 4.6 17.1 14.3 19.8 13.3 2.3 11.7
- Services 7.8 -3.0 12.8 4.5 -10.6 -0.5 -4.8 9.5 21.8 7.4 13.3 6.1
GDP 100.0 6.9 6.1 6.6 6.3 6.8 7.7 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.3 3.3
--National Economic and Social Development Board--
-PM-
HIGHLIGHT OF Q1/2005
GDP GROWTH BY SECTOR (YoY)
2004E 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05
Agriculture -3.9 -2.0 -5.8 -5.2 -3.3 -8.2
Non-agriculture 7.2 7.7 7.7 7.1 6.5 4.5
GDP 6.1 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.3 3.3
GDP recorded a slow growth of 3.3% resulting from weaken domestic consumption and
net exports, combined with drought, oil price surge and the Tsunami disaster.
* GDP in Q1 grew at 3.3% lower than 5.3% in 4Q04, underpinned by severe
drought, creeping up of oil price, and the catastrophic Tsunami disaster.
* Prolonged drought had caused growth in agricultural sector to remain
negative for 5 consecutive quarters, with this period posting a fall of 8.2%.
Production of major crops i.e. paddy, sugarcane and cassava contracted while
livestock production rebounded.
* Non-agricultural sector expanded only by 4.5% in response to a slowdown
in major production sectors, particularly manufacturing and transportation. Hotels
and restaurants shrunk while financial intermediation kept on expanding.
Trade and services balance, in nominal term, posted a highest deficit since the
Asian Crisis while household consumption and capital formation showed slow growth.
* Trade balance at current market prices registered a highest deficit
since the Asian Financial Crisis of Baht 124.5 billion as import growth outweighed
export. On the other hand, services balance remained in surplus at Baht 70.4
billion.
* Household consumption continued with the slow trend of 4.5% brought
about by continuous hikes in oil prices, drought, and Tsunami disaster.
* Investment grew by 14.8%, dampen from a growth of 16.2% in the previous
quarter. Investment by public sector accelerated from 28.2% in 4Q04 to 29.2% while
private sector slowed from 12.7% to 10.6%.
GDP Q1/05
GDP 1Q05 increased by 3.3%, slowed down in result of drought, creeping up
oil prices and Tsunami.
GDP growth %
2004 2004 2005
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Agriculture -3.9 -2.0 -5.8 -5.2 -3.3 -8.2
Non-agriculture 7.2 7.7 7.7 7.1 6.5 4.5
GDP 6.1 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.3 3.3
GDP (Seasonally Adjusted) 6.1 1.4 0.8 1.7 1.5 -0.6
* Overall : GDP in 1Q05 grew at 3.3% slower than 5.3% of the previous
quarter. After seasonal adjustment, GDP posted a decline rate of 0.6%. While
domestic demand kept on expanding in both consumption and investment, net external
demand was in deficit.
* Production : The production registered a slow growth of 3.3% compared
to the previous quarter owing to 8.2% drop in agricultural sector. Non-agricultural
sector, on the other hand, rose by 4.5%, slightly lower than 6.5% in 4Q04.
- Agriculture shrunk by 8.2% due to the contraction in crops by
16.7% in response to prolonged drought causing both paddy and sugarcane production
to slump. Livestock swung back into positive growth of 24.0% as production of
chicken and eggs picked up. Fishery decelerated by 8.4 % due to lower export of
shrimp.
- Manufacturing expanded by 3.6%, a slowdown in all industries
in line with subdue domestic demand and falling agricultural raw materials.
Moreover, large industries in petrochemical and steel industries also shut down in
this quarter for maintenance.
- Construction grew moderately by 13.3% as private construction
expanded by 10.3%, slightly lower than the previous quarter while growth of public
construction by 35.5% in 4Q04 slowed down to 16.0% in this period.
- Transport and communication rose by 4.9% owing to an expansion
of telecommunication services by 14.9%. However, transport services set back by
0.3% following contraction of goods and number of tourists, air transportation
dropped by 2.3 %.
- Hotel and restaurant turned downward by 2.0% resulting from
7.4% fall in hotel services in line with lower tourists arrivals particularly after
the Tsunami disaster. Restaurants grew slightly by 0.9% as domestic consumption
continued to slow.
- Financial intermediation remained robust with 17.2% growth rate
as commercial banks improved their performances in both net interest receipts and
income from fees.
* Demand : While domestic demand expanded, net export weaken.
- Domestic demand grew both in household consumption, government
consumption and investment.
(1) Consumption: Government consumption escaladed by 16.0% while
private consumption expenditure grew by 4.5% compared with 5.4% in previous quarter.
Major factor to such slowdown was the Tsunami disaster, leading to smaller tourists
and cancellation of New Year celebrations. In addition, expenditure on durable goods
e.g. automobiles, furniture, and large electrical appliances dampen by 0.2%,
especially passenger cars that decreased by 5.6 % as a result of continuous hovering
oil prices. Consumers, then reacted by switching to diesel cars as diesel prices
were lower.
(2) Investment registered a 14.8% growth with private investment
expanding by 10.6%, compared with 12.7% in the previous quarter, a slow in both
construction and equipments. Public sector increased by 29.2%.
- Net exports posted a slump in net export of goods and services
at constant prices of 47.3%.
(1) Exports of goods and services at constant prices fell by
0.1% due to a slow of the world electronic markets, together with a drop in
agricultural products caused by drought. At the same time, income from tourism grew
at a lower rate after the Tsunami disaster.
(2) Imports of goods and services at constant prices posted a
strong growth from 3.9% in 4Q04 to 10.8%. The import value of goods at constant
prices rose by 11.7% from imports of intermediate goods, raw materials and capital
goods, particularly gasoline, steels, machineries and non--monetary gold. For
expenditures on services increased by 6.1% with major contributor being expenditure
of residents abroad.
Growth Rate of Real GDP (year on year basis)
Production Side
Weight 2003 2004 2005
2003 2004
2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Agriculture 9.2 8.7 -3.9 10.1 9.9 9.2 6.5 -2.0 -5.8 -5.2 -3.3 -8.2
Non-agriculture 90.8 6.7 7.2 6.2 6.0 6.6 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.1 6.5 4.5
Manufacturing 38.7 10.4 8.4 10.2 11.2 9.3 10.8 10.2 7.3 8.4 7.6 3.6
Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 3.3 4.6 5.5 4.3 7.0 4.4 2.8 3.7 5.4 8.0 4.9 8.5
Construction 2.6 3.3 12.7 -5.5 0.1 6.4 13.3 14.3 7.3 9.4 22.2 13.3
Wholesale & Retail Trade 13.9 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8
Transportation, Storage & Communications 10.1 3.7 7.7 6.0 0.6 4.3 4.0 5.9 10.4 8.4 6.5 4.9
Hotels & Restaurants 3.6 -3.7 12.2 -2.5 -13.1 -1.3 1.0 1.8 28.4 16.3 6.1 -2.0
Financial Intermediation 3.5 16.2 14.2 14.3 15.0 15.2 20.2 12.9 16.7 11.6 15.7 17.2
Others 15.1 4.5 5.0 2.6 2.8 5.3 7.3 7.3 6.5 3.3 3.2 5.2
GDP 100.0 6.9 6.1 6.6 6.3 6.8 7.7 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.3 3.3
Expenditure Side
Weight
2003 2004 2005
2003 2004
2004 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Private Consumption Expenditure 54.5 6.4 5.7 6.7 5.9 5.6 7.5 6.2 5.7 5.6 5.4 4.5
- Exclude Tourists Expenditure 52.9 7.2 5.6 7.1 7.5 6.0 8.1 5.8 5.4 6.1 5.1 3.6
Government Consumption Expenditure 8.4 2.0 4.1 -8.1 4.6 4.2 7.9 7.0 4.9 0.3 5.2 16.0
Investment 22.4 11.9 14.4 7.7 9.0 10.9 20.3 16.7 12.9 12.0 16.2 14.8
- Private 16.5 17.5 15.3 18.3 16.4 15.8 19.4 18.6 16.1 14.2 12.7 10.6
- Public 6.0 -0.8 11.7 -16.6 -7.6 3.3 23.7 10.3 3.8 8.1 28.2 29.2
Exports 65.6 7.0 7.8 12.6 4.7 4.2 7.1 6.2 11.8 8.4 5.2 -0.1
- Goods 53.6 9.5 7.0 14.9 10.1 5.1 8.6 6.3 6.7 9.2 5.9 -0.5
- Services 12.1 -2.9 11.4 4.1 -19.5 0.2 1.4 5.8 43.3 4.5 2.1 1.3
Less : Imports 52.9 7.7 12.2 12.6 1.5 3.8 13.4 13.5 20.1 12.5 3.9 10.8
- Goods 45.1 9.7 12.1 14.2 3.8 4.6 17.1 14.3 19.8 13.3 2.3 11.7
- Services 7.8 -3.0 12.8 4.5 -10.6 -0.5 -4.8 9.5 21.8 7.4 13.3 6.1
GDP 100.0 6.9 6.1 6.6 6.3 6.8 7.7 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.3 3.3
--National Economic and Social Development Board--
-PM-