Economic Projection of 2007 - 2008
Projection
Actual 2007_f 2008_
f2005 2006_p 3 Sep.07 3 Dec.07 3 Dec.07
GDP (at current prices: Bil.Bht) 7,095.6 7,830.3 8,417.6 8,386.3 8,433.2
GDP per capita (Bht per year) 109,440.9 120,763.4 128,152.6 127,064.0 127,800
GDP (at current prices: Bil.USD) 176.2 206.6 240.5 243.1 255.6
GDP per capita (USD per year) 2,715 3,186.4 3,672.6 3,683.0 3,872.7
GDP Growth (at constant prices, %) 4.5 5.1 4.0-4.5 4.5 4.0-5.0
Investment (at constant prices, %) 10.6 3.8 1.5 1.3 5.8
Private (at constant prices, %) 10.6 3.7 1.0 0.3 5.0
Public (at constant prices, %) 10.8 3.9 3.0 4.5 8.0
Consumption (at constant prices, %) 5.3 3.0 2.6 3.1 4.5
Private (at constant prices, %) 4.5 3.2 1.7 1.9 3.5
Public (at constant prices, %) 10.8 2.3 7.8 10.2 10.0
Export volume of goods&services (,%) 3.9 8.5 7.3 6.7 4.1
Export value of goods (Bil.USD) 109.2 127.9 144.5 148.4 163.9
Growth rate (%) 15.0 17.1 13.0 16.0 10.0
Growth rate (Volume, %) 4.3 9.0 8.5 7.4 4.0
Import volume of goods&services (,%) 8.7 2.6 3.4 2.8 4.4
Import value of goods (Bil.USD) 117.7 126.0 135.4 138.6 155.9
Growth rate (%) 25.9 7.0 7.5 10.0 12.5
Growth rate (Volume, %) 8.9 -0.8 3.0 2.0 4.0
Trade balance (Bil.USD) -8.5 1.9 9.1 9.8 7.3
Current account balance (Bil.USD) 2/ -7.9 3.2 9.8 12.0 9.3
Current account to GDP (%) -4.4 1.5 4.1 4.9 3.6
Inflation (%)
CPI 4.5 4.7 2.0-2.5 2.3 3.0-3.5
GDP Deflator 4.5 5.0 3.3 2.6 3.0-3.5
Unemployment rate (%) 1.8 1.5 1.5-2.0 1.5 1.5
Source: Office of National Economic and Social Development Board. December 3, 2007
Note: 1/ Reinvested earnings has been recorded as part of FDI in Financial account,
and its contra entry recorded as income on equity in current account.
Tightened World Oil Market in 2007-2008
World oil demand continues to expand. Rapid increase were apparent in new emerging countries
such as China, India, US, Russia and the Middle East.
Annual Consumption (Million barrels)
China U.S. Other World
1999 4.364 19.519 51.781 75.665
2000 4.797 19.701 52.164 76.661
2001 4.918 19.649 52.836 77.402
2002 5.162 19.762 53.116 78.041
2003 5.580 20.034 54.003 79.617
2004 6.438 20.731 55.165 82.334
2005 6.721 20.802 56.132 83.655
2006 7.273 20.687 56.700 84.661
2007 7.679 20.791 57.332 85.801
2008 8.148 20.995 58.118 87.260
....However, oil supply in 2007 grows at a lower pace than demand since OPEC, UK and Norway
reduced their productions.
Annual Production (Million barrels)
Region / Country 2005 2006 2007 2008
World Total 84.631 84.603 84.798 87.345
OPEC Countries 35.560 35.295 34.887 36.524
North America 15.198 15.326 15.409 15.589
Canada 3.092 3.288 3.416 3.598
Mexico 3.784 3.707 3.530 3.316
United States 8.322 8.331 8.463 8.675
Russia and Caspian Sea 11.489 11.890 12.369 12.788
Russia 9.513 9.677 9.887 10.064
Kazakhstan 1.338 1.388 1.445 1.535
Latin America 4.410 4.559 4.635 4.979
Brazil 2.038 2.166 2.321 2.712
Other Latin America 0.499 0.510 0.475 0.476
North Sea 5.177 4.780 4.574 4.330
Norway 2.978 2.786 2.607 2.539
United Kingdom 1.771 1.602 1.594 1.428
Other Non-OPEC 12.798 12.755 12.923 13.135
...Total crude oil stocks in both the US and OECD declined to stay at below average level while OPEC
spare capacity also remain lower than average of 2.84 million barrel per day since 2003
OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity
Surplus Capacity
1996 2.36
1997 2.12
1998 3.21
1999 5.02
2000 3.11
2001 4.10
2002 5.64
2003 1.92
2004 1.27
2005 1.02
2006 1.47
2007 2.22
2008 2.37
Avg.1996-2008 2.84
.....Together with other downside risk factors such as natural disaster, political unrest in oil
producing countries, geopolitical conflicts, speculation in the markets and continual weakening US
dollar
Factors affecting oil prices
- A continued weakening US dollar will encourage oil producing countries to maintain the oil prices at a high level
- Geopolitical conflicts within oil producers such as Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria will not allow to produce at full capacity.
- Volatile climates such as Hurricane which affected oil production in Mexico gulf.
- Speculation of trader and hedge fund in the oil markets.
...........Appreciation of a currency could offset the impact of higher oil prices...........
--National Economic and Social Development Board--
-PM-
Projection
Actual 2007_f 2008_
f2005 2006_p 3 Sep.07 3 Dec.07 3 Dec.07
GDP (at current prices: Bil.Bht) 7,095.6 7,830.3 8,417.6 8,386.3 8,433.2
GDP per capita (Bht per year) 109,440.9 120,763.4 128,152.6 127,064.0 127,800
GDP (at current prices: Bil.USD) 176.2 206.6 240.5 243.1 255.6
GDP per capita (USD per year) 2,715 3,186.4 3,672.6 3,683.0 3,872.7
GDP Growth (at constant prices, %) 4.5 5.1 4.0-4.5 4.5 4.0-5.0
Investment (at constant prices, %) 10.6 3.8 1.5 1.3 5.8
Private (at constant prices, %) 10.6 3.7 1.0 0.3 5.0
Public (at constant prices, %) 10.8 3.9 3.0 4.5 8.0
Consumption (at constant prices, %) 5.3 3.0 2.6 3.1 4.5
Private (at constant prices, %) 4.5 3.2 1.7 1.9 3.5
Public (at constant prices, %) 10.8 2.3 7.8 10.2 10.0
Export volume of goods&services (,%) 3.9 8.5 7.3 6.7 4.1
Export value of goods (Bil.USD) 109.2 127.9 144.5 148.4 163.9
Growth rate (%) 15.0 17.1 13.0 16.0 10.0
Growth rate (Volume, %) 4.3 9.0 8.5 7.4 4.0
Import volume of goods&services (,%) 8.7 2.6 3.4 2.8 4.4
Import value of goods (Bil.USD) 117.7 126.0 135.4 138.6 155.9
Growth rate (%) 25.9 7.0 7.5 10.0 12.5
Growth rate (Volume, %) 8.9 -0.8 3.0 2.0 4.0
Trade balance (Bil.USD) -8.5 1.9 9.1 9.8 7.3
Current account balance (Bil.USD) 2/ -7.9 3.2 9.8 12.0 9.3
Current account to GDP (%) -4.4 1.5 4.1 4.9 3.6
Inflation (%)
CPI 4.5 4.7 2.0-2.5 2.3 3.0-3.5
GDP Deflator 4.5 5.0 3.3 2.6 3.0-3.5
Unemployment rate (%) 1.8 1.5 1.5-2.0 1.5 1.5
Source: Office of National Economic and Social Development Board. December 3, 2007
Note: 1/ Reinvested earnings has been recorded as part of FDI in Financial account,
and its contra entry recorded as income on equity in current account.
Tightened World Oil Market in 2007-2008
World oil demand continues to expand. Rapid increase were apparent in new emerging countries
such as China, India, US, Russia and the Middle East.
Annual Consumption (Million barrels)
China U.S. Other World
1999 4.364 19.519 51.781 75.665
2000 4.797 19.701 52.164 76.661
2001 4.918 19.649 52.836 77.402
2002 5.162 19.762 53.116 78.041
2003 5.580 20.034 54.003 79.617
2004 6.438 20.731 55.165 82.334
2005 6.721 20.802 56.132 83.655
2006 7.273 20.687 56.700 84.661
2007 7.679 20.791 57.332 85.801
2008 8.148 20.995 58.118 87.260
....However, oil supply in 2007 grows at a lower pace than demand since OPEC, UK and Norway
reduced their productions.
Annual Production (Million barrels)
Region / Country 2005 2006 2007 2008
World Total 84.631 84.603 84.798 87.345
OPEC Countries 35.560 35.295 34.887 36.524
North America 15.198 15.326 15.409 15.589
Canada 3.092 3.288 3.416 3.598
Mexico 3.784 3.707 3.530 3.316
United States 8.322 8.331 8.463 8.675
Russia and Caspian Sea 11.489 11.890 12.369 12.788
Russia 9.513 9.677 9.887 10.064
Kazakhstan 1.338 1.388 1.445 1.535
Latin America 4.410 4.559 4.635 4.979
Brazil 2.038 2.166 2.321 2.712
Other Latin America 0.499 0.510 0.475 0.476
North Sea 5.177 4.780 4.574 4.330
Norway 2.978 2.786 2.607 2.539
United Kingdom 1.771 1.602 1.594 1.428
Other Non-OPEC 12.798 12.755 12.923 13.135
...Total crude oil stocks in both the US and OECD declined to stay at below average level while OPEC
spare capacity also remain lower than average of 2.84 million barrel per day since 2003
OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity
Surplus Capacity
1996 2.36
1997 2.12
1998 3.21
1999 5.02
2000 3.11
2001 4.10
2002 5.64
2003 1.92
2004 1.27
2005 1.02
2006 1.47
2007 2.22
2008 2.37
Avg.1996-2008 2.84
.....Together with other downside risk factors such as natural disaster, political unrest in oil
producing countries, geopolitical conflicts, speculation in the markets and continual weakening US
dollar
Factors affecting oil prices
- A continued weakening US dollar will encourage oil producing countries to maintain the oil prices at a high level
- Geopolitical conflicts within oil producers such as Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria will not allow to produce at full capacity.
- Volatile climates such as Hurricane which affected oil production in Mexico gulf.
- Speculation of trader and hedge fund in the oil markets.
...........Appreciation of a currency could offset the impact of higher oil prices...........
--National Economic and Social Development Board--
-PM-