- Overall, private consumption in 2007 significantly slowed down with an expansion of only 1.4 percent compared to those of 3.2 and 4.5 percent in 2006 and 2005 respectively. Consumption expenditures in durable goods decreased by 5.9 percent while the expansion of consumption in semidurable and non-durable goods weakened to 0.8 and 3.2 percent respectively. As household consumption continued to expand at a slower pace than exports, the share of household consumption in GDP declined continuously from 54.7 in 2005
to 53.6 and 51.9 in 2006 and 2007 respectively.
- In the fourth quarter, export growth remained solid in spite of the world economic slowdown and baht appreciation. Export value in US dollar term accelerated notably to 24.0 percent growth, from an average 16.1 percent rise in the first three quarters. Export volumes grew by 14.3 percent and export price rose by 8.5 percent. However, in baht terms, export value and price increased at a smaller rates of 15.0 and 0.6 percent respectively.
- Export of agricultural commodity grew by 28.5 percent as a result of the rapid increase in its export price of 26.5 percent. The strong increase in export price was fueled by the upsurge in price of energy crops. However, export volumes of agricultural products increased by only 1.8 percent. Major agricultural export which recorded strong expansions are (1) Rice which was driven by a strong expansion in its export volumes as other major suppliers such as Vietnam and India suffered by supply disruption (2) Rubber that was driven by price increase in response to the surge in world oil price as well as the stronger demand from automobile industry (3) Cassava that was driven by export price as demand for ethanol production increased. However, export volume of cassava declined from a particular high export base in 2006.
Export of manufacturing products continued to expand with a growth rate of 25.4 percent. Main drivers of manufacturing exports were computers and parts, airconditioners, refrigerators, vehicle and parts, gems and jewelry, plastic, rubber products, paper products and toiletry products. On the contrary, television and parts experienced a sharp drop in export value.
- Total export of electronics continued to grow at a satisfactory rate, despite a decline of some product lines under this category as a result of the slowdown in world semiconductor market. Export of computers and parts grew by 19.4, continued its growth momentum from previous quarter, but the export of integrated circuit declined. Export of computers and parts to its major markets such as the U.S, China, Hong Kong and Japan continued on its upward trend.
- Export of electrical appliances remained robust. Export value of refrigerator and freezer continued to grow robustly, especially those to European market as warm weather has raised the demand for air-conditioners, refrigerators and parts thereof. Major markets are Australia, Spain, Japan and Italy. Nonetheless, export of television and parts continued to decline due to the cancellation of GSP in the
U.S market that has been effective since July 2007.
- Export of gems and jewelry grew at a remarkable rate of 92.4 percent though suffered from GSP cancellation in the U.S market. This exceptional expansion was driven by a strong growth in other markets, in particular export to Australia, Hong Kong and etc, which offset the reduction in its export to the U.S market.
- Export to the major markets continued to grow at a healthy rate and export to the U.S rebounded in the last quarter. Exports to Japan, EU(15) and ASEAN5 continued to strong, growing by 12.2, 7.7 and 42.2
percent respectively while export to the U.S turned around from its contraction in the second and third
quarters to a small expansion of 5.3 percent in the last quarter. Export goods that revealed strong growth
in the U.S market included computer and parts, integrated circuit, rubber, and gems and jewelry. Export to emerging markets grew at a satisfactory rate, in particular export to China, Eastern Europe, Africa and Middle East. However, export to India slowed down.
- For the year 2007, total exports were 151,147 million US dollars, 18.1 higher than that of 2006.
The strong growth was driven by volume and price increases of 11.8 and 5.7 percent respectively. However, the export value in baht terms increased at a notably smaller rate of 7.7 percent as price in baht terms declined by 3.7 percent due to baht appreciation. Export goods that performed well included computers and parts, vehicles and parts, integrated circuits, rubber and gems and jewelry. In term of export markets, export to Japanese, EU(15) and ASEAN 5 markets continued to grow satisfactorily. Meanwhile, market structure was increasingly diversified to China, India, Eastern Europe, Australia and Middle East which helped offset
the contraction of export in the U.S market.
- Imports accelerated in the last quarter. In the fourth quarter, import value in USD increased by 16.6 percent, with the price and volume increase of 10.5 and 5.5 percent respectively. Import volume
increased in all categories except for oil import.
- Imports of raw materials continued to expand. Import values grew by 19.4 percent in line with strong export expansion and improving domestic demand. The main import goods that picked up
significantly were textile yarns and fiber, fabric, fertilizer and pesticides, rubber products, plastic
products and chemical products.
- Imports of capital goods continued to increase. Import of capital goods grew by 6.4 percent, with an increase in volumes by 3.4 percent, in response to the expansion of domestic investment. The rise in import of capital goods was contributed primarily by the increase in import of metal products, machinery and parts, electrical machinery and parts, computer and parts as well as the import of natural gas
platforms worth of 477 million US dollars in December 2007.
- Import of consumer goods expanded by 27.2 percent in the last quarter. Import price in US dollars terms increased by 5.3 percent while import volumes grew by 20.8 percent. However, baht appreciation resulted in a decline of import price in baht terms of 3.1 percent and thus induced domestic consumption on imported goods. The imported consumer goods which increased strongly included milk and dairy products, household electrical appliances, vegetables and fruits, clothes, shoes, and watches and parts.
- Import volume of fuel and lubricants declined as prices continued to increase sharply. Import value of fuel and lubricants went up by 22.1 percent. However, the increase in its value was
attributable to import price rise of 31.0 percent while its import volumes dropped by 7.0 percent.
This partly reflected the structural shift in energy consumption toward alternative energy, such as
Bio-diesel, Gasohol and NGV, and, to some extent, the efficiency improvement.
- Total imports value in 2007 stood at 139,174 million US dollars, grew by 9.6 percent from
2006, with its increases in price and quantity of 5.4 and 4.1 percent respectively. The strong import
growth were seen in major commodities such as crude oil, machinery and parts, chemical products, integrated circuits, electrical machinery and parts.
Nevertheless, in term of baht, total imports shrank by 0.1 percent.
- Term of trade deteriorated. In the fourth quarter, import prices in US dollar term increased by 10.5 percent, a faster pace than 8.5 percent increase of export prices. This led term of trade to deteriorate
consecutively from the third quarter. Loss in terms of trade, consequently, weakened the income effect
of export.
- Trade balance registered a surplus of 4,473 million US dollars (151,576 million baht) in the
fourth quarter. Overall, in 2007, trade balance recorded a large surplus of 11,973 million US dollars or 412,241 million baht.
- Current account registered a surplus of 6,184 million US dollars (209,491 million baht) in the
fourth quarter. For the year, current account surpl us reached 14,923 million US dollars (514,517 million
baht), which was equivalent to 6.1 percent of GDP.
- Production side: In the fourth quarter, production of manufacturing, hotel and restaurant, construction and agricultural sectors increased at a faster pace than in the third quarter. Manufacturing sector expanded by 8.1 percent, compared to 4.6, 4.5 and 5.7 percent in the first three respective quarters, which was driven mainly by the expansion of export-oriented industries namely integrated circuits, hard disk drive, airconditioners, commercial cars and rubber gloves. However the production of color televisions has
contracted since the fourth quarter of 2005 as a result of the shut down of Cathode Ray Tube (CRT) factories in response to new technology that led to new product lines. In the meantime, Thailand has not yet moved up to the new technology which produces Liquid Crystal Display (LCD). In addition, the production of several domestic market-oriented products decline continuously, for instance, textile, cement, steel and products, and motorcycle.
Hotel and restaurant sector grew by 7.0 percent, accelerated from 2.8 percent in the third quarter, in line with an expansion of tourism. Construction sector grew by 5.2 percent, accelerated from 1.4 percent in the third quarter.
Agricultural sector expanded by 2.9 percent, picked up from 1.7 percent in the third quarter. The
production of major crops such as palm, rubber and sugarcanes continued to expand while the production
of rice and cassava softened. However, the production of corn declined. Prices of major crops continued to trend upward, in particular those of energy crops. For the whole year of 2007, production of agriculture,
manufacturing, construction, and service and other sectors grew by 3.9, 5.8, 2.1 and 4.3 percent respectively.
Consumption of Petroleum Products
(%YOY) 2550
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 ทั้งปี
Total petroleum
consumption -3.2 -2.8 1.5 4.2 -0.2
Benzene 2.7 1.6 4.4 -1.7 1.7
Octane (91+ 95) 2.4 -2.8 -4.7 -18.8 -6.1
Gasohol 3.8 21.7 46.2 77.0 37.8
Diesel -0.3 0.7 5.6 1.8 1.8
HSD + LSD -0.8 -1.1 1.9 -4.0 -1.1
B5 1,185.5 1,034.0 1,768.3 1,391.9 1,360.6
LPG 12.0 13.1 13.6 18.1 14.3
NGV 88.5 116.2 113.3 139.8 117.6
Source: Bureau of Energy Business, Energy Policy and Planning Office
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