Economic Projection of 2008
Actual data 2007 2008_f
Projection Preliminary Projection
2005 2006 Dec 3, 07 Feb 25, 08 Dec 3, 07 Feb 25, 08
GDP (at current prices: Bil.Bht) 7,095.6 7,830.30 8,386.3 8,485.2 9,032.0 9,158.3
GDP per capita (Bht per year) 109,440.9 120,763.40 127,064.4 128,563.6 136,848.4 138,762.4
GDP (at current prices: Bil.USD) 176.2 206.6 243.1 245.5 273.7 284.4
GDP per capita (USD per year) 2,715 3,186.40 3,683.0 3,720.0 4,146.9 4,309.4
GDP Growth (at constant prices, %) 4.5 5.1 4.5 4.8 4.0-5.0 4.5-5.5
Investment (at constant prices, %) 10.6 3.8 1.3 1.4 5.8 6.7
Private (at constant prices, %) 10.6 3.7 0.3 0.5 5.0 7.0
Public (at constant prices, %) 10.8 3.9 4.5 4.0 8.0 6.0
Consumption (at constant prices, %) 5.3 3.0 3.1 2.7 4.5 4.7
Private (at constant prices, %) 4.5 3.2 1.9 1.4 3.5 3.8
Public (at constant prices, %) 10.8 2.3 10.2 10.8 10.0 10.0
Export volume of goods&services (,%) 3.9 8.5 6.7 7.1 4.1 5.9
Export value of goods (Bil.USD) 109.4 127.9 148.4 151.2 163.3 166.2
Growth rate (%) 15.2 17.0 16.0 18.1 10.0 12.0
Growth rate (Volume, %) 4.3 8.3 7.4 7.2 4.0 6.0
Import volume of goods&services (,%) 8.7 2.6 2.8 3.5 4.4 6.6
Import value of goods (Bil.USD) 117.6 126.9 139.6 139.2 157.1 161.1
Growth rate (%) 25.8 7.9 10.0 9.6 12.5 15.4
Growth rate (Volume, %) 8.9 0.2 2.0 1.5 4.0 6.9
Trade balance (Bil.USD) -8.3 1.0 8.8 12.0 6.2 5.1
Current account balance (Bil.USD) -7.6 2.2 11.0 14.9 9.3 8.6
Current account to GDP (%) -4. 1.0 4.5 6.1 3.0 3.0
Inflation (%)
CPI 4.5 4.7 2.3 2.3 3.0-3.5 3.2-3.7
GDP Deflator 4.5 5.0 2.6 2.7 3.0-3.5 3.2-3.7
Unemployment rate (%) 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5
The U.S economic Prospect is gloomier than previously expected
The impacts of sub-prime crisis on the U.S real economic activities are worsened than what
previously expected. Recent housing market indicators had not yet signaled bottoming out anytime soon. In
December, new home sales shrank to its 13 years low. Home prices fell steadily while investment in housing
construction contracted. The permitted housing construction pointed to a further decline in housing
construction. Investor confidences were dampened by the massive write downs of sub-prime related debts held
by financial institutions. Stock prices dropped sharply from its highest level. Financial institutions
tightened their lending standards across the board, resulting in tight financial market condition. On top of
the surge in oil and food prices, these factors squeezed household purchasing power further. Retail sales
dropped by 0.4 percent in December. Manufacturing production expanded at a satisfactory rate supported by
favorable export, but its growth momentum is facing with downside risk from slowing global economy. The ISM
composite measures of non-manufacturing activities declined to its lowest level after 2001 recession,
suggesting deteriorated situation in non-manufacturing sector. The contraction of property sector, financial
and service sectors, as well as the slowdown in manufacturing production, resulted in a reduction of non-
farm payrolls in January and thus increasingly discourage private consumption.
Non-manufacturing production contracted
2007 2008
Jan Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan
ISM(Non-Mfg) - - - - - 44.6
- Business activity 57.9 56.0 54.8 54.6 54.4 41.9
ISM (Mfg) 49.3 51.3 49.6 50.0 48.4 50.7
- New orders 52.4 55.0 50.7 52.5 46.9 49.5
- Production 51.5 54.6 50.0 51.3 48.6 55.2
- Exports 52.5 56.0 56.0 58.5 52.5 58.5
The rapid economic deterioration had led the Federal Reserve to cut the policy rate by totally 125
basis points within two weeks in January, the most aggressive move in the U.S economic history. Furthermore,
the Congress has approved the fiscal stimulus package worth 150 billion US$. The decision indicated
imperative policy responses to restore economic condition. Nevertheless, business and consumer confidences
remained weak in February
The hefty Fed Fund Rate reduction has somewhat, eased financial market conditions. The
conventional 30-year mortgage rate gradually declined while the 3-month LIBOR moved in line with the Fed
Fund target. However, the effectiveness of easing policy will depend on demand for credits of real sectors
and willingness to lend by financial institutions under shaken consumer confidence and tighten lending
standards. With respect to fiscal stimulation package, tax rebates are likely to revive private consumption
from May, after the U.S. economy has slipped into consumer led recession in the first half of 2008. It is
widely expected that the US economy will slow down from 2.2 percent in 2007 to only 1.5 percent in 2008. The
spillover from the U.S. economic downturn has already affected the world trade situation since 2007, as the
U.S. current account deficit has been narrowed. Therefore, an imminent US recession, in particular the
contraction of domestic demand, associated with weakening U.S. dollar will increasingly hamper exports of
its trading partners. The latest data in December indicated that the U.S. bilateral trade deficits with Euro
zone and China were narrowed down significantly.
--National Economic and Social Development Board--
-PM-
Actual data 2007 2008_f
Projection Preliminary Projection
2005 2006 Dec 3, 07 Feb 25, 08 Dec 3, 07 Feb 25, 08
GDP (at current prices: Bil.Bht) 7,095.6 7,830.30 8,386.3 8,485.2 9,032.0 9,158.3
GDP per capita (Bht per year) 109,440.9 120,763.40 127,064.4 128,563.6 136,848.4 138,762.4
GDP (at current prices: Bil.USD) 176.2 206.6 243.1 245.5 273.7 284.4
GDP per capita (USD per year) 2,715 3,186.40 3,683.0 3,720.0 4,146.9 4,309.4
GDP Growth (at constant prices, %) 4.5 5.1 4.5 4.8 4.0-5.0 4.5-5.5
Investment (at constant prices, %) 10.6 3.8 1.3 1.4 5.8 6.7
Private (at constant prices, %) 10.6 3.7 0.3 0.5 5.0 7.0
Public (at constant prices, %) 10.8 3.9 4.5 4.0 8.0 6.0
Consumption (at constant prices, %) 5.3 3.0 3.1 2.7 4.5 4.7
Private (at constant prices, %) 4.5 3.2 1.9 1.4 3.5 3.8
Public (at constant prices, %) 10.8 2.3 10.2 10.8 10.0 10.0
Export volume of goods&services (,%) 3.9 8.5 6.7 7.1 4.1 5.9
Export value of goods (Bil.USD) 109.4 127.9 148.4 151.2 163.3 166.2
Growth rate (%) 15.2 17.0 16.0 18.1 10.0 12.0
Growth rate (Volume, %) 4.3 8.3 7.4 7.2 4.0 6.0
Import volume of goods&services (,%) 8.7 2.6 2.8 3.5 4.4 6.6
Import value of goods (Bil.USD) 117.6 126.9 139.6 139.2 157.1 161.1
Growth rate (%) 25.8 7.9 10.0 9.6 12.5 15.4
Growth rate (Volume, %) 8.9 0.2 2.0 1.5 4.0 6.9
Trade balance (Bil.USD) -8.3 1.0 8.8 12.0 6.2 5.1
Current account balance (Bil.USD) -7.6 2.2 11.0 14.9 9.3 8.6
Current account to GDP (%) -4. 1.0 4.5 6.1 3.0 3.0
Inflation (%)
CPI 4.5 4.7 2.3 2.3 3.0-3.5 3.2-3.7
GDP Deflator 4.5 5.0 2.6 2.7 3.0-3.5 3.2-3.7
Unemployment rate (%) 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5
The U.S economic Prospect is gloomier than previously expected
The impacts of sub-prime crisis on the U.S real economic activities are worsened than what
previously expected. Recent housing market indicators had not yet signaled bottoming out anytime soon. In
December, new home sales shrank to its 13 years low. Home prices fell steadily while investment in housing
construction contracted. The permitted housing construction pointed to a further decline in housing
construction. Investor confidences were dampened by the massive write downs of sub-prime related debts held
by financial institutions. Stock prices dropped sharply from its highest level. Financial institutions
tightened their lending standards across the board, resulting in tight financial market condition. On top of
the surge in oil and food prices, these factors squeezed household purchasing power further. Retail sales
dropped by 0.4 percent in December. Manufacturing production expanded at a satisfactory rate supported by
favorable export, but its growth momentum is facing with downside risk from slowing global economy. The ISM
composite measures of non-manufacturing activities declined to its lowest level after 2001 recession,
suggesting deteriorated situation in non-manufacturing sector. The contraction of property sector, financial
and service sectors, as well as the slowdown in manufacturing production, resulted in a reduction of non-
farm payrolls in January and thus increasingly discourage private consumption.
Non-manufacturing production contracted
2007 2008
Jan Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan
ISM(Non-Mfg) - - - - - 44.6
- Business activity 57.9 56.0 54.8 54.6 54.4 41.9
ISM (Mfg) 49.3 51.3 49.6 50.0 48.4 50.7
- New orders 52.4 55.0 50.7 52.5 46.9 49.5
- Production 51.5 54.6 50.0 51.3 48.6 55.2
- Exports 52.5 56.0 56.0 58.5 52.5 58.5
The rapid economic deterioration had led the Federal Reserve to cut the policy rate by totally 125
basis points within two weeks in January, the most aggressive move in the U.S economic history. Furthermore,
the Congress has approved the fiscal stimulus package worth 150 billion US$. The decision indicated
imperative policy responses to restore economic condition. Nevertheless, business and consumer confidences
remained weak in February
The hefty Fed Fund Rate reduction has somewhat, eased financial market conditions. The
conventional 30-year mortgage rate gradually declined while the 3-month LIBOR moved in line with the Fed
Fund target. However, the effectiveness of easing policy will depend on demand for credits of real sectors
and willingness to lend by financial institutions under shaken consumer confidence and tighten lending
standards. With respect to fiscal stimulation package, tax rebates are likely to revive private consumption
from May, after the U.S. economy has slipped into consumer led recession in the first half of 2008. It is
widely expected that the US economy will slow down from 2.2 percent in 2007 to only 1.5 percent in 2008. The
spillover from the U.S. economic downturn has already affected the world trade situation since 2007, as the
U.S. current account deficit has been narrowed. Therefore, an imminent US recession, in particular the
contraction of domestic demand, associated with weakening U.S. dollar will increasingly hamper exports of
its trading partners. The latest data in December indicated that the U.S. bilateral trade deficits with Euro
zone and China were narrowed down significantly.
--National Economic and Social Development Board--
-PM-