- Stock market tumbled. Average daily trading value was 12.2 billion baht, decreased from 20.0 billion baht in the second quarter. SET index closed 596.54 at points the end of third quarter, down from 768.59 points at the end of previous quarter which equivalent to a 22.39 percentage drop. Net sale of foreign investor was recorded at 74.78 billion baht, increased by 107.3 percent compared to the last quarter. SET index throughout the third quarter had declined significantly; especially in September from massive net sale by foreign investors, to reduce market risk and cover-up financial losses back home. SET index dropped in line with regional performance but to the lesser extent. SET index became more fluctuate with its associated downward trend in October through to November, and recorded a 5 years low of 387.43 points in the beginning of October before slightly rebounded after several releases of counter-crisis measures by major countries particularly the US. over 9 months, daily trading was averaged at 16.68 billion baht and foreign investors recorded a net sale of 142.17 billion baht.
Capital Flow and Trading value of Foreign investors
2006 2007 2008 (billion baht ) End of period Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Net Capital Flow 5.7 -2.7 0.7 0.4 -1.4 13.0 -2.0 na na Net value of foreign investor in SET 55.0 30.6 66.9 -2.2 -40.3 -13.9 -36.1 -74.8 -15.6 Net value of foreign investor in BEC 35.5 -34.2 -18.7 8.0 4.6 29.1 26.5 8.8 -0.03 Source : BOT, SET, ThaiMBA
- Bond trading accelerated compare to same period of last year but declined from the last quarter. Daily average outright trading was 74.9 billion baht, increased from 44.6 billion baht in the same period of last year but slightly declined from the last quarter which recorded at 78.2 billion baht. Net buy of foreign investors recorded at 8.78 billion baht declined from 26.5 billion baht in the second quarter, which was equivalent to a drop of 66.86 percent, caused by deepening financial crisis. Bond price index increased slightly. Government bond yields of all maturity decreased by 32 — 154 basis points except short-term maturity bond, (1 — 6 months). In October, daily average trading volume declined by 9.77 percent from September to 63.87 billion baht, with net sale from foreign investor of 28 million baht.
- Corporate fundraising increased from the same period last year but slowed down from last quarter, in line with private sector investment direction. Corporate fundraising (excluding short-term bond) in the third quarter was 28.64 billion baht compared to 56.3 billion baht in the second quarter and 15.4 billion baht in the same period last year. Total fund raised by non-financial sectors registered 1.19 billion baht. With all of the transaction in issuance of private placement (PP). During 9 months, corporate fundraising was 186.6 billion baht, increased from 107.6 billion baht in the same period last year.
- Listed companies earning reported lower growth. Listed companies on SET showed net profit of 78.4 billion baht, decreased by 22.5 percent from the same period last year. The reduction in profit was attributable to the reduction in profit from exchange rate transaction and higher costs. Most sectors reported lower profit except for agribusiness and food industry which recorded 58.4 percent increase in profit compared to same period last year. Transportation and logistics sector earning substantially declined by 346.8 percent owing to higher inventory and fuel costs. Commercial banks’ earning slightly decreased. Banking sector showed net profit of 24 billion baht decreased by 2.3 billion baht from the second quarter, due to higher reserve requirement and debt restructuring. Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) in the third quarter increased from 15.2 percent to 15.7 percent, owing to higher net profit and new capital raised. However, in the fourth quarter, reserve ratio is expected to be higher to cover losses from downgrading foreign assets and increasing realized losses from sub-prime crisis.
- Trend of oil price in 2008-2009
- World crude oil prices: In the third quarter of 2008 average world crude oil prices (Dubai, Brent, Oman and WTI) stood at 115.4 US dollar/barrel, increased by 58.7 percent from the same period last year but slowed down from 82.4 percent in previous quarter. Oil prices continued to be volatile and associated with steady upward trend from the first half of 2008 due to stock accumulation in China for Beijing Olympic Game and demand other Asian countries outside OECD group as well as low excess production capacity. Thus, oil prices have increased steady and reached its historical peak level in July 2008 with average prices (Dubai, Brent, Oman and WTI) of 133.0 US dollar/barrel. However, US financial crisis which also affected other regions and depressed global economic expansion and the completion of Beijing Olympic Game resulted in oil demand reduction since August. Average crude oil price steady declined from 144.4 US dollar/barrel in August to 98.7 and 71.2 US dollar in September and October respectively, and continued its downward trend afterward.
Crude Oil Price (US$/Barrel)
OMAN DUBAI BRENT WTI Average 2007 Year 68.75 68.83 72.60 72.64 70.70 2008 Q1 92.34 91.50 96.72 98.03 94.65
Q2 117.75 117.02 112.21 124.02 120.25
Q3 114.16 113.32 116.24 117.85 115.39
9 M 108.08 107.28 111.72 113.30 110.10
Oct. 67.92 67.45 72.91 76.66 71.24
10 M 104.07 103.30 107.84 109.63 106.21
1-19 Nov. 52.57 52.42 55.90 59.83 55.15 Source: Reuter
- Domestic retail petrol prices: rose steadily in tandem with world oil prices. In third quarter, retail petrol prices were fluctuated in tandem with oil prices in the world market. The retail petrol prices reached their peak level in July with an average 42.7 and 40.9 baht/litre for of benzene 91 and 95, and average of 35.6 and 36.4 baht/litre for gasohol 91 and 95 (E10) as well as 35.6 and 36.4 baht/litre for high speed diesel and bio-diesel (B5), averaged prices were 42.6 and 41.9 baht/litre respectively. However, domestic oil prices have eased steadily since August in line with the reduction in world oil prices. Domestic retail prices in the third quarter of traditional benzene 91 and 95 averaged at 39.7 and 37.9 baht/litre, increased by 35.8 and 33.1 percent correspondingly. Average gasohol 91 and 95 (E10) prices were 30.6 and 31.4 baht/litre, increased by 22.1 and 21.7 percent respectively. High speed diesel and bio-diesel (B5), averaged prices were 33.3 and 32.6 baht/litre, increased by 39.9 and 41.1 percent respectively. Nonetheless, retail petrol prices have eased continuingly since October. Therefore, in first 10 months, traditional benzene 91 and 95 prices stood at 37.0 and 35.4 baht/litre. Gasohol 91 and 95 (E10) prices were 30.2 and 31.0 baht/litre, high speed diesel and B5 averaged at 33.3 and 32.6 baht/litre.
Retail Petrol Price (Baht/litre)
ULG95 UGR91 Gasohol HSD HSD B5
95E10 95E20 91E10
2007 Year 29.18 28.32 26.17 - 25.62 25.66 24.95
2008 Q1 33.39 32.22 29.38 27.47 28.57 29.78 29.04
Q2 38.43 37.26 34.12 32.22 33.29 36.35 35.47
Q3 39.72 37.87 31.37 30.05 30.56 36.21 35.52
9 M 37.18 35.78 31.62 29.92 30.81 34.12 33.34
Oct. 34.90 31.90 25.39 24.25 24.59 26.22 25.45
10 M 36.95 35.40 31.00 29.35 30.18 33.33 32.55
1-21 Nov. 30.24 26.61 21.53 20.23 20.73 22.64 21.57
Source: EPPO
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