3. Economic Management for 2009
Under current economic crisis, there is a probability of global economic recession in 2009. This is reflected by sharply decline in world trade volume, which has severely impacted export growth in several countries including Thailand since the end of 2008. The impacts are expected to be more pronounced in the first half of 2009. In effort to counter these risks to economic outlook, it is imperative for the Thai government to mobilize its fiscal resources in launching economic recovery measures. These measures should be aimed at stabilizing and stimulating domestic demand in the most effective and efficient manner. The guidelines for economic measures are as follows:
(1) Accelerate budget disbursement in FY 2009 and their mid- term supplementary budget, which totalled 116,700 million baht. It is also crucial for the government to accelerate disbursement of FY 2009 government budget. In parallel with such acceleration, preparation for budget allocation in FY 2010 should also be carried out in a bid for front-loaded disbursement of FY 2010 government budget and avoid the delay of budget execution. In this respect, project prioritization and details must be laid out as soon as the first FY 2010 budget reading is passed by the parliament. The implementation of key public investment projects must also be expedited concertedly.
(2) Prepare additional measures to provide cushion for those who could be laid off should the economic situation develop into deeper recession and lead to shut down of factories, globally and domestically. These measures should incorporate the scheme for unemployment compensation/welfare and training for the unemployed to improve skills in order to create opportunities for new jobs.
(3) Closely monitor sectors that could be severely affected, such as tourism and export sector. Rescue package should be designed and prepared as the exit strategies during crisis.
(4) Monitor and manage agriculture prices guarantee scheme to ensure efficiency and effectiveness and promote the scheme of comprehensive development in agriculture sector to be implemented with efficiency, transparency, and accountability.
(5) Ease monetary policy further and closely manage liquidity in the money market. Soft loan and credit guarantee for SMEs on loans will also be implemented.
Economic Projection of 2009
-------- Actual Data --------- ----Projection_2009f---
2006 2007 2008 24 Nov.08 23 Feb.09
GDP (at current prices: Bil. Bht) 7,841.3 8,493.3 9,102.8 9,813.8 9,012.8
GDP per capita (Bht per year) 120,933.0 128,686 135,939 147,576.6 135,530.7
GDP (at current prices: Bil. USD) 206.9 245.8 270 284.5 251.8
GDP per capita (USD per year) 3,190.8 3,723.6 4,072.5 4,277.6 3,785.8
GDP Growth (at constant prices, %) 5.2 4.9 2.6 3.0-4.0 (-1)—(0)
Investment (at constant prices, %) 3.9 1.3 1.1 4.8 -0.4
Private (at constant prices, %) 4.1 0.6 3.2 3.8 -3.0
Public (at constant prices, %) 3.3 3.4 -4.8 8.0 8.0
Consumption (at constant prices, %) 2.9 2.7 2.2 4.3 3.1
Private (at constant prices, %) 3.0 1.6 2.5 3.7 2.2
Public (at constant prices, %) 2.4 9.2 0.4 8.0 8.3
Export volume of goods & services (%) 9.1 7.1 5.5 4.4 -6.2
Export value of goods (Bil. USD) 127.9 150.0 175.3 192.7 152.3
Growth rate (%) 17.0 17.3 16.8 7.0 -13.1
Growth rate (Volume, %) 11.2 11.0 5.5 4.0 -6.5
Import volume of goods & services (%) 3.3 3.4 7.5 5.2 -5.4
Import value of goods (Bil. USD) 126.9 138.5 175.1 199.2 150.6
Growth rate (%) 7.9 9.1 26.4 10.0 -14.0
Growth rate (Volume, %) 1.3 3.6 12.0 5.0 -7.0
Trade balance (Bil. USD) 1.0 11.6 0.2 -6.5 1.8
Current account balance (Bil. USD) 1/ 2.3 14.0 -0.2 -3.5 2.3
Current account to GDP (%) 1.0 6.1 -0.1 -1.2 0.9
Inflation (%)
CPI 4.7 2.3 5.5 2.5-3.5 (-0.5)-(0.5)
GDP Deflator 5.1 3.2 4.5 2.5-3.5 (-0.5)-(0.5)
Unemployment rate (%) 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5-2.5 2.5-3.5
Source: Office of National Economic and Social Development Board. February 23,2009
Note: 1/ Reinvested earnings has been recorded as part of FDI in Financial account, and its contra entry recorded as income on equity in current account.
--National Economic and Social Development Board--