- Hotel and Restaurant contracted by 5.0 percent compared to the same period in last year. The contraction mainly attributable to reduction of tourist number amid worsening world economic condition and, the spillover from Airport shutdown and domestic political condition. Domestic traveling costs declined in the first quarter particularly accommodation cost as average hotel cost dropped by 2.4 percent and Bangkok accommodation cost plunged by 1.5 percent. The number of foreign tourists in the first quarter dropped by 15.2 percent, or approximately 3.67 million persons, compared to the first quarter of 2008, particularly Asian tourists; such as tourists from China, Korea and Japan that dropped by 34.2, 30.2 and 46.6 percent respectively. Meanwhile, Malaysian tourists increased by 2.6 percent, slowed down from 53.9 percent, 21.7 percent and 3.2 percent during the second quarter through to fourth quarter of last year. The average occupancy rate recorded at 53.0 percent, dropped from 67.9 percent in the same period of last year, which is equivalent to 22.0 percent reduction. The occupancy rate reduction occurred in all areas around the country, especially in Bangkok which declined from 77.2 percent to 55.6 percent. While, the Northern region occupancy rate was at 44.9 percent, down from 53.4 percent owing to smoke hazard problem from a forest fire.
- Financial sector expanded by 4.2 percent, slowed down from the last quarter. This was owing to significant slow down in credit extension (excluded repurchase position with the central bank) from 10.2 percent in the previous quarter to 8.0 percent. Private and personal credits decelerated from 9.3 percent and 11.2 percent expansion in the fourth quarter to 5.9 percent and 5.4 percent respectively. The slowdown in credit expansion partially attributable to stricter lending practices. Meanwhile, the proportion of non-performing loans (NPL) to credits outstanding was at 3.1 percent, accelerated from 2.9 percent in the last quarter. This implied that the ability to repay has declined as a result of economic
contraction, which will eventually reduce revenues of financial institutions.
- The overall energy efficiency remained improved
- The ratio of oil consumption to GDP in the first quarter of 2009 stood at 0.9579 percent, increase from 0.8980 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and 0.9189 percent in the same period of 2008. This was attributable to seasonal effects and domestic retails petroleum price that has been adjusted downward in line with the world market. The reduction in petroleum prices resulted in higher oil demand especially for personal car usage. However, the average ratio of oil consumption to GDP in
- Domestic consumption of petroleum products: Alternative energy consumption continued to grow. In the first quarter of 2009, daily gasohol usage was at 12.5 millionlitre(59 percent of benzene
Consumption of traditional benzene continued to decline as the structure of energy consumption shifted towards the alternative energy such as gasohol and bio-diesel in which prices are evidently lower than those of the traditional energy. In addition to prices incentive, the increase in alternative energy consumption is also attributable to the government anti-inflation measure (“6 months 5 measures” economic package) to encourage gasohol usage by reducing the excise tax on gasohol 91 and 95 by 3.30 baht per litre, high speed diesel by 2.30 and 2.10 baht per litre (effective on 25 July 2008 — 31 January 2009). After the end of this measure, the alternative energy usage continued to expand as seen in the increase of energy-saving vehicles production such as gasohol usage car. This confirmed the shift in the structure of energy consumption towards the alternative energy consumption in broad-based.
- Economic stability, inflation declined whereas unemployment rate accelerated. External stability, current account registered a substantial surplus together with the increase of international reserves.
- Internal Stability
- Headline inflation5 dropped to -0.3 percent in the first quarter, from 2.1 percent in the previous quarter and average of 5.5 percent in 2008, due to 1) extension of “6 months 5 measures” program, and 2) steep decline in world oil price, which in turn lowered domestic retail petroleum price. Food and beverage price index increased by 10.0 percent, especially in rice, flour and cereal product, meat, egg and dairy product. The increase in food and beverage price negatively affected consumption spending on foods which is the necessary consumption goods. Non-food and beverage price index decreased by 6.9 percent, as a result of the decline in transportation and communication price index of by 13.0 percent
Moreover pressure on producer price index also declined. In the first quarter, producer price index decreased by 3.5 percent, due to the decline in price of mining and manufactured products by 18.4 and 5.5 percent respectively. Price of agriculture products continued to increase by 8.5 percent, as a result of the increase of paddy, rice and fruit6 prices
- Average employments in Q1/2009 were 36.50 million people, increased by 1.9 percent from the same period last year. Numbers of employment in agricultural sector were 12.90 million people, which increased by 0.8 percent. Numbers of employment in non-agricultural sector were 23.60 million people, increased by 2.5 percent. Employment in manufacturing sector decreased by 3.7 percent due to the negative impacts from economic recession that resulted in a continual decline in employment for four consecutive
With the deep contraction of global economy, orders from foreign countries were lessen; some entrepreneurs shut down their factories and lay off workers. The number of insured persons claimed for unemployment benefit increased from 82,000 people in the same period of last year to 245,000 people or increased by 198.8 percent. The main reasons for layoff were business losses, decline of orders, end of production season, business downsizing, and end of employment contract. The top-five production sectors that recorded high layoff were: textile, electronic, mineral product, computer maintenance, and garment.
In the first quarter of 2009, there were 385,460 corporations registered with Social Security Office which increased by 0.5 percent. Also, there were 8.64 million people insured under social security program, decreased by 2.1 percent from the same period last year. The world financial crisis and Thai political situation were unfavorable factors to the investment environment which also discouraged the opportunity to find a new job. This was witnessed by the increase of new job applicants of 52.8 percent, while available job positions decreased by 32.5 percent. Thus, the ratio of vacant jobs to applications at the end of March 2552 dropped to 0.36 from 0.71 and 0.55 at the end of September and December 2551 respectively, indicating that unemployment likely to increase further.
- External stability
- Current account registered a large surplus. In the first quarter, inbound tourism receipts increased at it normal pace over tourism season. However, outbound tourism expenditure substantially declined and thus resulted in a marked service account surplus. Combined with the high surplus in trade balance, current account recorded a surplus of 9,112 million USD which is equivalent to 32,580 million baht.
- Foreign reserves remained in check. At the end of April, foreign reserves stood at 116.83 billion USD (with the net forward position of 3.58 billion USD), increased from 111.01 billion USD at the end of December 2008 (with the net forward position of 6.96 billion USD), which is 4.9 times of external short-term debt and equivalent to 12.6 months of import value in March (which was at 9.26 billion baht).