TRIS Rating Co., Ltd. has assigned the rating of “A” to the proposed issue of up to Bt3,000 million in guaranteed debentures of Glow Energy PLC (GLOW). At the same time, TRIS Rating has affirmed the company rating and the ratings of GLOW’s current guaranteed debentures at “A”. The outlook remains “stable”. The proceeds from the new debentures will be used to refinance the loans of Thai National Power Co., Ltd. (TNP), GLOW’s new subsidiary. The ratings reflect GLOW’s proven track record in the power generating industry in Thailand, reliable cash flow from long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) with the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), and long-term contracts with a diverse group of industrial customers. These strengths are partially offset by customer concentration risk as most of GLOW’s customers are in the petrochemical industry in the Map Ta Phut area.
The “stable” outlook reflects the expectation that GLOW will receive reliable cash flows from its long-term power sales contracts with EGAT and its industrial customers. The commissioning of its power projects under development will gradually increase the cash flow stream in the coming years.
TRIS Rating reported that GLOW was established in 1993 as a Small Power Producer (SPP) in the Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate. Its business scope has expanded to include power cogeneration and independent power producer (IPP) both in Thailand and in neighboring countries. GDF SUEZ Group remains the major shareholder of GLOW. GDF SUEZ is one of the world’s leading energy providers, supplying energy throughout the world, but primarily in Europe. GDF SUEZ also operates gas transmission and distribution networks and provides other energy services. Currently, GLOW is the leading private power producer in Thailand. The company’s cogeneration business generated about 70% of its sales and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) in 2010. As of March 2011, GLOW had power generating capacity totaling 1,945 megawatts (MW), consisting of 865 MW in IPP plants and 1,080 MW in cogeneration units. GLOW’s IPP gas-fired plants are located in Chonburi province while its hydro power plant is located in Lao PDR. GLOW’s cogeneration business, which is located in the Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate and the Eastern Seaboard Industrial Estate in Rayong province, mainly caters to petrochemical plants which require highly stable supplies of utilities. However, this structure carries concentration risk because most of GLOW’s customers are in the petrochemical industry and located in the Map Ta Phut area.
Out of GLOW’s total capacity of 1,945 MW of electricity and 1,046 tonnes per hour of steam, 1,429 MW has been contracted to EGAT under several PPAs spanning 21 to 25 years. The remaining capacity of electricity and steam, together with treated water, are supplied to industrial customers under sales contracts. The contracts have remaining terms of up to 20 years. These long-term commitments provide GLOW with reliable sources of cash flow. In 2010, sales to EGAT contributed about 57% of total revenue while sales to industrial customers accounted for the remainder.
TRIS Rating said, GLOW’s shareholders approved on 8 July 2011 the acquisition of a 100% stake in TNP from International Power PLC (IPR) for US$55 million (Bt1,668 million). This acquisition follows the plans of GDF SUEZ and IPR, the major shareholders of GLOW, to consolidate power operations in Thailand after IPR merged with GDF SUEZ in the beginning of 2011. TNP and its subsidiaries operate gas-fired power plants totaling 141 MW under the SPP scheme. The plants are located in Pluak Daeng district in Rayong province. TNP is developing new cogeneration power plants under the SPP scheme totaling 110 MW, worth Bt4,500 million. TNP earned revenue of Bt2,400-Bt2,600 million per year with EBITDA reaching Bt460-Bt540 million per year during 2008-2010. As of June 2011, TNP and its subsidiaries had interest-bearing debt of Bt2,902 million. TNP will borrow an additional Bt3,000 million to complete the second SPP project currently under development. The investment in TNP therefore will cost GLOW Bt7,570 million in total or Bt30.2 million per MW. After the TNP acquisition, the power generating capacity of GLOW will increase by 251 MW in 2012, up 8% compared with the pre-acquisition level. The TNP acquisition also offers some diversification benefits to GLOW. TNP’s plants are located outside the Map Ta Phut area and primarily cater to the automotive and electrical appliance industries. Leverage will increase due to the acquisition, which will weaken the financial strength of GLOW in the medium term. However, the debt level remains manageable, supported by the reliable cash flows of TNP and the upcoming commissioning of GLOW’s expansion projects.
GLOW’s performance was considered satisfactory in 2010 despite a delay in commissioning of a new cogeneration plant, CBF#3. Total power and stream sold increased in 2010, rising 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) by volume. GLOW recorded a 3.3% increase in total revenue to Bt35,657 million in 2010. GLOW’s operating margin before depreciation and amortization improved significantly, climbing to 25.0% in 2010 from 22.1% in 2009, because of lower fuel prices. EBITDA for 2010 was Bt9,084 million, up by 16% from Bt7,830 million in 2009. In the first quarter of 2011, GLOW’s EBITDA declined to Bt2,279 million, a 4% drop compared with the same period of the prior year. Revenue of the IPP business shrank by 9% over the same period of the previous year, due to a strong baht as well as a drought, which cut the revenue from the Houay Ho hydro power plant (HHPC). EBITDA also fell because of a decrease in fuel transfer (Ft) charge of Bt0.056 per kilowatt hours (KWh) from January till April 2011. GLOW’s total debt to capitalization ratio increased to 62.1% at the end of the first quarter of 2011 from 59.8% in 2009, due to higher borrowing to fund its expansion projects. Looking forward, EBITDA is expected to increase in 2011 as new capacity expansion comes on stream. The net increases in tariff from Ft charge of Bt0.0893 per KWh during May-June 2011 and Bt0.0293 during July-August 2011 will partly alleviate the negative impact from rising fuel costs.
GLOW’s two expansion projects, Phase 5 (382 MWe) and a new IPP, GHECO-One (660 MW), are under construction. The two projects are nearly completed with Bt9,800 million yet to spend in 2011. The Phase 5 project is expected to be commercially operational by September 2011. The IPP project, which is awaiting approval of its Environmental Health Impact Assessment study, is expected to commence operation by January 2012. Taken together, the expansion projects, including TNP will raise GLOW’s electricity generating capacity by 1,293 MWe. The total capacity across the GLOW Group will then jump by 58% to 3,526 MWe by 2012, said TRIS Rating. -- End
Company Rating: Affirmed at A Issue Ratings: GLOW12DA: Bt3,000 million guaranteed debentures due 2012 Affirmed at A GLOW156A: Bt1,500 million guaranteed debentures due 2015 Affirmed at A GLOW173A: Bt1,000 million guaranteed debentures due 2017 Affirmed at A GLOW175A: Bt2,000 million guaranteed debentures due 2017 Affirmed at A GLOW17OA: Bt1,600 million guaranteed debentures due 20 Affirmed at A GLOW186A: Bt2,500 million guaranteed debentures due 2018 Affirmed at A GLOW194A: Bt2,000 million guaranteed debentures due 2019 Affirmed at A GLOW19OA: Bt1,400 million guaranteed debentures due 2019 Affirmed at A Up to Bt3,000 million guaranteed debentures due within 2021 A Rating Outlook: Stable
TRIS Rating Co., Ltd./www.trisrating.com Contact: rapee@tris.co.th, Tel: 0-2231-3011 ext 500/Silom Complex Building, 24th Floor, 191 Silom Road, Bangkok 10500, Thailand ? Copyright 2011, TRIS Rating Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Any unauthorized use, disclosure, copying, republication, further transmission, dissemination, redistribution or storing for subsequent use for any purpose, in whole or in part, in any form or manner or by any means whatsoever, by any person, of the credit rating reports or information is prohibited. The credit rating is not a statement of fact or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any debt instruments. It is an expression of opinion regarding credit risks for that instrument or particular company. The opinion expressed in the credit rating does not represent investment or other advice and should therefore not be construed as such. Any rating and information contained in any report written or published by TRIS Rating has been prepared without taking into account any recipient’s particular financial needs, circumstances, knowledge and objectives. Therefore, a recipient should assess the appropriateness of such information before making an investment decision based on this information. Information used for the rating has been obtained by TRIS Rating from the company and other sources believed to be reliable. Therefore, TRIS Rating does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any such information and will accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from any inaccuracy, inadequacy or incompleteness. Also, TRIS Rating is not responsible for any errors or omissions, the result obtained from, or any actions taken in reliance upon such information. All methodologies used can be found at http://www.trisrating.com/en/rating_information/rating_criteria.html.