INDUSTRY OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
TRIS Rating holds a “neutral” view on the outlook of the natural rubber (NR) processor industry. NR processors have volatile revenues and profitability because NR prices fluctuate widely. Margins in the industry are under pressure caused by high competition in the world market. However, NR processors could partially mitigate risks from NR prices and foreign exchange through hedging instruments.
KEY FACTORS
Persistent drop in NR prices
NR prices in 2018 are expected to stay low due to oversupply. NR price volatility is caused by many factors, such as imbalanced market situations, oil prices, and speculation. Recently, NR prices in Thailand recovered due to a temporary supply shortage stemming from a flood in the first quarter of 2017 (Q1/2017). The average price of ribbed smoked sheet grade 3 (RSS3; F.O.B Bangkok) rose to Bt69.22/kilogram (kg) in 2017, up by 18.9%. However, NR prices have slipped since April 2017, owing to a supply surplus. The average price of RSS3 plunged to Bt51.74/kg in the first ten months of 2018 (10M2018), down by 28.7% year-on-year (y-o-y).
Global NR supply remains in surplus
TRIS Rating expects the global NR production to exceed NR usage for the next few years. NR production in 2018 is expected to reach 13.99 million tonnes, up from 13.54 million tonnes in 2017. NR usage is expected to grow at a slower pace than NR production. NR usage in 2018 is expected to rise to 13.68 million tonnes, from 13.23 million tonnes in 2017. Generally, more than 70% of NR usage is in the tire industry. The rest is used in non-tire products, especially NR gloves. The automobile industry is expected to grow moderately due to the impact from the trade war between the United States (US) and China. The NR glove, the smaller segment, continues to have a good prospect. Demand for NR gloves is expected to grow by 15% in 2018. However, according to the International Rubber Study Group (IRSG), the surplus is projected to be much lower after reaching its peak in 2013. This is due to diminishing supply and fewer new rubber plantations.
Competition in the world market may rise in the future
Thailand remains the world’s largest NR supplier. NR produced in Thailand contributed approximately 35% of worldwide NR production during 2013-2017. NR production in Indonesia shared 26% of total NR production. Vietnam has become the third-largest NR producer in the world since 2013. According to the IRSG, NR production is anticipated to rise in all major NR producing countries during 2019-2023. Global market competition tends to rise because of an increase in NR production due to global demand volatility.
Exports face more uncertainties
NR exports from Thailand may be negatively impacted by the US-China tariff hikes. Over 80% of NR produced in Thailand is exported. China took over 46.2% of the Thai NR exports during 2013-2017, followed by Malaysia (17.6%), Japan (6.8%), the US (4.8%), and South Korea (4.4%). In 9M2018, NR exports from Thailand decreased slightly to 2.6 million tonnes, down by 0.1% y-o-y. Exports to China, Thailand’s NR major export market, plunged by 12% y-o-y. The drop was due to effects from the trade war and softened demand in China. Exports to Malaysia rose by 13.5% y-o-y. The rise was due to an increase in exports of concentrated latex. Malaysia is the main manufacturer of latex gloves in the world. The rising demand for latex gloves will support growth of NR exports from Thailand.
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