TRIS Rating downgrades the company rating on Thai Solar Energy PLC (TSE) to ?BBB-? from ?BBB? and revises the rating outlook to ?stable? from ?negative?. The rating downgrade mirrors an expected surge in TSE?s financial leverage to fund the construction of the company?s largest solar power plant, the Onikoube project, as well as to support its potential acquisitions or investments in new renewable power projects.
The rating continues to reflect the reliable cash flows from the company?s renewable power portfolio and the sound performance of its operating power plants. However, these credit strengths are tempered by the expected rise in financial leverage over the near term.
KEY RATING CONSIDERATIONS
Reliable cash flow from power portfolio
TRIS Rating expects TSE?s solid cash flow generation will sustain over the foreseeable future, backed by secure earnings from multi-year power purchase agreements (PPAs) with creditable utility off-takers. At the end of August 2020, TSE?s total installed power generation capacity and contracted capacity were 355.8 megawatts (MW) and 304.9 MW, respectively. Solar power assets constitute about 90% of total contracted capacity while the remainder comes from biomass power plants.
TSE?s solar power portfolio remains its core cash generator, contributing about 75% of total earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). Cash flow from solar farms is steady and predictable, owing largely to low operational risks.
About 171.9 MW contracted capacity of TSE?s current power portfolio is in operation. Upcoming new capacity of 133 MW will stem from the much-anticipated Onikoube project, a sizable solar farm in Japan. The project is expected to commence operations in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Sound performance of power plants
TSE?s existing power plants have reported consistently sound performance. Total power output in 2019 rose materially to 402.9 gigawatt-hours (GWh), from 251.4 GWh in 2018, up by 60% year-on-year (y-o-y) thanks to the full-year contribution of output from the company?s biomass power plants. In the first half of 2020, output rose to 216.3 GWh from 200.6 GWh over the same period last year, an increase of 7.8%.
TSE?s core solar project, comprising 10 solar farms with 80-MW contracted capacity, continues to outperform the 50% probability of production (P50) by 5%-10%. Its biomass power plants have also delivered satisfactory results with high utilization rates and improving profitability. This pool of power plants contributes most of TSE?s earnings, accounting for approximately 85% of total EBITDA in 2019.
Challenging business environment
We view investment opportunities for renewable power, particularly solar power in Thailand, to be in decline compared to the boom period several years
ago. The changing business environment of Thailand?s renewable power industry has made new investment more difficult, following the cessation of incentive tariffs, intensified bidding competition, and diminishing returns on investment. Furthermore, despite the government?s intent to support the use of renewable power, bid openings for new public projects are still being delayed, causing project developers to enter into PPAs with private customers or seek opportunities overseas instead. Given the dearth of new opportunities, we expect to see increasing consolidation and divestiture of existing power projects in the industry.
TSE has a target to add 100-300 MW of new capacity over the medium term. Since 2019, the company has added 31 MW of contracted capacity, comprising four operating solar farms (23 MW) and a floating solar power plant (8 MW) under a private PPA. To reach its growth objectives, we believe the company will likely seek investment opportunities by acquiring operating power assets in Thailand or by undertaking green-field projects overseas.
Investment risk in the Onikoube project
TSE?s credit strength is constrained chiefly by its exposure in the Onikoube project, a single large-scale solar farm in Japan. The project, which got underway in 2017, is TSE?s largest-ever investment. TSE?s main objective in the investment is to maintain revenue growth in view of an anticipated sharp drop in revenue from its key 80-MW solar farms due to the expiry of adders between 2023 and 2024.
The investment in the project has been a strain on TSE?s credit profile, given its large capital spending requirement and long period of development. The Onikoube project accounts for 44% of TSE?s power portfolio, suggesting significant concentration risk. In addition, TSE will likely shoulder a heavy debt load until the project can commence operations.
However, these drawbacks are offset by the project?s low country risk, favorable tariff rate of JPY36 per kilowatt-hour, and low construction and operational risks. In the long term, we believe the project commencement will likely be a positive factor that will considerably strengthen TSE?s credit profile. Given its sizable scale and high tariff rates, the project should bolster TSE?s business strength and enlarge its cash flow for a sustained period once the project begins its commercial operation.
Debt-heavy financial profile
In our base case for 2020-2022, we expect TSE?s power plant performance will remain solid and bring in around THB1.4-THB1.55 billion in EBITDA per year. We also expect the Onikoube project to progress as planned and TSE to maintain 100% ownership in the project over the course of development, contrary to its initial plan to divest a 40% share in the project.
We expect TSE?s financial profile to weaken during construction as the company will need to spend approximately THB9.4 billion during 2020-2022 for construction of the Onikoube project. The spending will be mainly financed by loans. Since we believe the company is still seeking to acquire existing renewable projects and participate in bidding for new projects once they are available, we assume that TSE will further add around 10-20 MW of new capacity per year to its portfolio. We believe the probability of TSE raising new equity to be limited. We see the divestiture of existing power projects as a more probable option for the company to meet its financing needs.
Based on this scenario, we forecast that the ratio of net debt to EBITDA will rise and stay at around 10 times during 2021-2022. This level of leverage is deemed relatively high compared to most other renewable power producers rated by TRIS Rating. However, we expect TSE?s leverage to drop sharply once the Onikoube project starts operations. Leverage could also be lowered in the scenario of a partial divestment of TSE?s share in the project.
Liquidity remains manageable
In assessing TSE?s financial profile and performance, we include the respective assets, liabilities, and financial performances of the joint ventures in TSE?s consolidated accounts, in proportion to the ownership stake in each venture. As of June 2020, total debt stood at THB12.55 billion. In all, the company had THB994 million in long-term loans coming due in the next 12 months, which should be sufficiently covered by cash on hand and expected operating cash flows.
BASE-CASE ASSUMPTIONS
? Total operating revenues of about THB2.2-THB2.4 billion per year during 2020-2022
? EBITDA margin (EBITDA as a percentage of total operating revenue) of around 60%-63%
? Total capital expenditure (CAPEX) amounting to about THB12 billion during 2020-2022
? Dividend payout ratio of 30%
RATING OUTLOOK
The ?stable? outlook reflects our expectation that TSE?s power portfolio will continue to deliver sound performance and bring in robust cash flows. Furthermore, we expect the Onikoube project to progress as scheduled with no significant cost overruns.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The rating upside during the development of the Onikoube project is limited but it could emerge if TSE strengthens its capital structure significantly, which could result from selling part of its stake in the Onikoube project or raising new equity, such that the ratio of debt to EBITDA declines to below 8 times.
A rating downgrade could occur if TSE?s financial profile deteriorates further, which could result from aggressive debt-funded investments.
COMPANY OVERVIEW
TSE is an investment holding company, established in 2008 to develop renewable power projects. The company was listed on the Market for Alternative Investment (MAI) in October 2014. TSE?s shares were moved to trade on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) in May 2019.
As of August 2020, the company had 42 projects in its power portfolio. The company had total installed capacity of about 355.8 MW and contracted capacity of 304.9 MW. The equity installed capacity was 313.9 MW. All projects are in operation, except the Onikoube project.
The company?s core project, comprising 10 solar farms, is operated by Thai Solar Renewable Co., Ltd. (TSR), a 60:40 joint venture (JV) between TSE and Global Power Synergy PLC (GPSC). The project?s installed capacity is 104.8 MW with contracted capacity of 80 MW. The project is a centerpiece of profit-making, generating over 63% of TSE?s EBITDA in 2019. The company is constructing the Onikoube project, a Japanese solar farm with an installed capacity of 147 MW and a contracted capacity of 133 MW. The project is scheduled to commence operations in the fourth quarter of 2022.
RELATED CRITERIA
- Rating Methodology ? Corporate, 26 July 2019
- Key Financial Ratios and Adjustments, 5 September 2018
Thai Solar Energy PLC (TSE)
Company Rating: BBB-
Rating Outlook: Stable