Excellencies,
Distinguished Participants,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
(Introduction)
Good morning to everyone. On behalf of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Thailand, I wish to extend a very warm welcome to all of you to Bangkok and to this Regional Conference.
I believe that today’s Conference takes place at an important time – a time of political and economic transition in the Asia-Pacific.
And indeed we are very honoured to have with us so many distinguished speakers from throughout the region to guide us in our discussions on how the region can best handle the security challenges confronting it so that we can secure a peaceful environment for continued growth and development.
Let me begin by sharing with you some of my thoughts on the current strategic landscape in the region and how I see it evolving.
(Changing Strategic Landscape in the Region)
I think it is fair to say that comparing to other parts of the world, the Asia-Pacific is enjoying relative peace, security, and stability.
The geo-economics of the region is moving in the direction of sustained growth, deeper integration, growing interdependence, and enhanced connectivity.
ASEAN, on its part, is redoubling its efforts to realize the ASEAN Community in 2015. As part of this community building efforts, work is being done to bridge the development gap in the Mekong Sub-region. Regional ASEAN networks, a regional FTA, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, is being negotiated between ASEAN and a number of its Dialogue Partners. And APEC, which brings together nations from both sides of the Pacific, continues to make steady progress.
All of these developments bode well for continued prosperity of the region.
But unfortunately, the geo-politics of the region is not moving in the same positive direction.
There is intensified competition – some say confrontation – among the major powers.
There are regional flashpoints, for example, maritime disputes concentrating on overlapping maritime claims. And there are emerging non-traditional security challenges, ranging from infectious disease, natural disasters, food, energy, and water security crises to transnational crimes, terrorism, and extremism.
This dichotomy, as I call it, between the rising geo-economics and the deteriorating geo-politics, poses a challenge to all of us. Because ultimately, if current geo-political trends continue in this direction, they would threaten our region’s economic gains as well as undercut the potential for future growth and development.
And the situation is compounded by the fact that the region is undergoing important strategic transformations – all of them involving the major powers.
We have a rising China whose continued growth, we all hope, will ensure a peaceful rise, serving as a pillar for regional prosperity and stability.
We see an economically revitalized Japan – one that is seeking to play a greater, independent defense and security role in this region and beyond.
We also have the United States – we must not forget the United States definitely – enhancing its engagement in the region – an engagement, we hope, that would be comprehensive. By this, I mean one that goes beyond defense and security to reinforcing the economic partnerships that have helped to fuel Southeast Asia’s growth and development. And, in particular, the region’s overall peace and security.
Meanwhile, India and Russia are seeking to enhance their roles in, and engagement with, the Asia-Pacific as well.
(Relations Among the Major Powers)
Ladies and Gentlemen,
The actions of all these major powers converge, in one way or another, on the Asia-Pacific. Therefore, the relations among them will be a critical factor in determining the direction of geo-politics in the region.
If these relations are stable, managing change becomes easier.
But if these relations are difficult – as they appear to be at present – then managing the region’s transformations becomes more problematic.
Some of these relations are made more complicated because of unresolved historical legacies. Sometimes, problems arise also from different perceptions of the region’s future.
We have to accept the fact that Japan-China relations continue to pose challenges for our region. Unresolved territorial issues, coupled with issues of the legacies of history that have not yet been brought to closure, have heightened tensions. More importantly, they have prevented the relations between two of Asia’s most important partners from moving forward.
With regard to relations between the United States and China, there have been ups and downs. On the positive side, the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue last month has resulted in enhanced cooperation in a number of areas.
But tensions exist on other issues, including the South China Sea. There are many unanswered questions that impact on this important relationship.
And interestingly, the evolving strategic relations among the major powers have raised a number of fundamental questions we should grapple here at this Meeting.
For one: How can one accommodate a rising China that contributes to the region’s stability and prosperity?
Two: How can the U.S. strategic rebalancing become more multi-dimensional so that it is not perceived as being focused only on the military dimension or reinforcement of alliances?
And three: How can Japan play a larger security role on its own while remaining anchored in the U.S.-Japan security framework which has long provided the stabilizing influence for the region?
This triangular relationship between China, Japan, and the United States – along with the growing role of India and Russia – has a direct bearing on geo-political trends in our region.
So what we need are stable, harmonious relations among the major powers. We need constructive engagement by the major powers with each other – and with the region as a whole – in order to promote stability and manage change and conflict.
(Importance of ASEAN Centrality)
The responsibility to help reverse current geo-political trends and help prevent and manage conflict, however, rests not only with the major powers, but also with other countries in the region as well. ASEAN, in particular, has a significant role to play.
As the record shows, ASEAN had a good reputation as facilitator of dialogue and promoter of regional cooperation. ASEAN is known as a group that is enemy to none and friend to all. And ASEAN has provided important platforms for major powers and other countries to come together to help address regional issues of concern.
But with growing competition among the major powers – and a growing zero-sum game approach to dealing with the region – ASEAN’s centrality is under challenge.
It is, therefore, more important than ever for ASEAN to assert its centrality. It should continue to play its role as a facilitator to ensure that inclusive platforms for dialogue and cooperation continue to be available for all powers to use to help resolve differences.
It is in recognition of this responsibility that ASEAN has been trying to enhance its centrality. And here, Thailand just recently introduced a paper – a paper of ideas – that tries to suggest ways for ASEAN to do this. We also had a Senior Officials’ Retreat especially for this issue.
In short, we believe that ASEAN centrality will need to be reinforced, and in some cases, re-engineered, especially in terms of how ASEAN operates; how it addresses regional flashpoints; how it deals with the major powers, the evolving regional architecture, and developments and issues beyond ASEAN.
Because ASEAN can no longer just concentrate on issues in our region to be recognized as a respected player in international affairs. We have to work with the international community to overcome global challenges.
The bottom line is that ASEAN will need to prove its value-added to the region by being united and resilient, proactive and innovative. This is so that it retains the interest and trust of other powers to help develop frameworks for dialogue and cooperation necessary to address the region’s challenges.
(Dealing with Regional Flashpoints)
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Nowhere is the need for effective management of tensions to avoid conflict more critical than in dealing with the regional flashpoints.
And some of the most dangerous flashpoints involve maritime disputes, such as in the South and East China Seas. These straddle major sea lanes that are critical to enhanced region-wide maritime connectivity and to the continued growth and development of the Asia-Pacific.
Now the reality is that the disputes in these maritime areas have existed for a long time and no one expects them to be completely resolved any time soon.
Nevertheless, we must make sure that such disputes do not escalate and affect regional peace and security, which are the very foundations of our region’s economic success.
It is also in our common interest to ensure that sea lines of communication remain safe and secure.
Indeed, all have a role to play to help de-escalate tensions in regional flashpoints.
The parties concerned must address the trust deficit that exists between them and on the overlapping claims. It behooves all parties concerned to come up with innovative ideas in this regard.
Over the long term, we need to strengthen norms and rules to facilitate the peaceful resolution of disputes such as the efforts towards the early conclusion – I want to emphasize the word early – of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. But in the meantime, we have to deal with the immediate issue of de-escalating tensions on the ground.
Parties can work together to come up with additional confidence-building measures (CBMs) and help prevent incidents at sea from occurring.
In addition, we should look at how to enhance cooperation in win-win areas, such as environmental research, and search and rescue. Are there areas where joint cooperation and development activities can be pursued in the future, whether to address transnational crimes at sea or oil spills? For example, can parties take forward the work being developed in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) on search and rescue and in dealing with oil spills?
And of course, the major powers have a role to play to manage relations among themselves so as to create a more conducive environment to address these maritime issues.
(Evolving Regional Architecture)
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Over the long term, to help address these challenges of change and to manage these geo-political trends, we will need a more effective multilateral framework for cooperation. We will need to have a more structured order based on shared rules and norms, cooperative security, and multilateral and perhaps institutionalized dialogue and cooperation.
In other words, we need a more effective regional architecture.
To achieve this, we should build on existing ASEAN-led frameworks and arrangements, which are open and inclusive. Such arrangements engage all the key players and are well suited to our very diverse region. And these arrangements enjoy the comfort level of all.
In this connection, it would be important to make the East Asia Summit (EAS) truly strategic in order to help drive efforts to manage these geo-political trends that are causing concern in our region. After all, the EAS is a Leaders-led process comprising all the key players with a footprint in the region.
In any case, and as I said earlier, ASEAN will have to play a proactive role, exercise its centrality, and be in the driver’s seat as it works in partnership with all key parties if the EAS is to fully realize its potential as a key pillar of the regional architecture.
(Conclusion)
Now in conclusion, I am quite sure, Ladies and Gentlemen, that I have raised more questions than given answers on the important issues facing this Regional Conference. But perhaps this is the prerogative of the Opening Speaker.
I look forward to productive and fruitful discussions today and tomorrow. I hope that we can come up with useful ideas on how to better manage the geo-political trends of our region to ensure continued peace, security, and stability in the Asia-Pacific.
Thank you very much.
--กองการสื่อมวลชน กรมสารนิเทศ กระทรวงการต่างประเทศ--